Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
431 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL BUT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA. THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THIS BAND OF
ACTIVITY NOW STRETCHES FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS AND TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY INTO NORTH CENTRAL LA.

OVERALL...IT HAS BEEN A GOOD SOAKING FOR MANY LOCALES TODAY WITH
INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS. THE SOIL IS NOW SUPER
WET...AND IT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG
FORMATION AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING IF THE WINDS ARE
LIGHT. OTHERWISE WE MAY JUST SEE A LOW DECK SET UP SHOP AND LINGER
UNTIL LATE MORNING. WE/LL GO WITH THE FOG FOR NOW WITH SOME
CLEARING LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LOW STILL OVER SW KN...DEEPENING
SINCE THIS MORNING. THE DRY PUNCH IS WORKING IN OVER THE REGION
NOW AND WILL SWEEP THE WEATHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A PRE PERIOD FORECAST WAS ISSUED TO BETTER
DISCUSS THE COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR NOW AND THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH OUT WEST IT WILL
LIKELY BE CURTAINS FOR THE EAST...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO WIND DOWN COMPLETELY. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE OUR ONLY WATCH TO
CONTEND WITH IN OUR AREA...BUT NO DOUBT NORTH CENTRAL LA WILL BE
ONGOING WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER 00Z.

WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND MEX FOR
THE LONG. THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX. IFR/MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ACCEPT AT TYR AND GGG
WHERE RAIN IS COMING TO AN END AND SOME DRY AIR IS WORKING INTO THE
AREA. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW LIFTED UP INTO THE I30
CORRIDOR. TEMPO +TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS AND
VSBY BELOW 1SM WHERE +TSRA ACTIVITY OCCURS.  SOME MODERATE TO
EXTREME TURBULENCE MAY BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA. TSRA ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT THE LA AND AR TERMINALS...BUT
ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 06Z. MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TAF PERIOD. /11/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  80  61  79  63 /  20  10  10  20  20
MLU  61  79  60  80  61 /  80  20  10  20  20
DEQ  45  76  54  80  59 /  30  10  10  10  20
TXK  54  77  60  79  62 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  57  78  59  79  60 /  80  10  10  20  20
TYR  53  80  61  79  62 /  20  10  10  20  20
GGG  54  80  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  20  20
LFK  58  80  62  81  63 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
121 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ126-137-138-150>153-165>167-121200-
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MARION-GREGG-HARRISON-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
121 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM IS INCREASING...AND NO SUNSHINE
MAY BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR AFFECTING INSTABILITY. OUR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION AND AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...NO
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-136-
149-121200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-CHEROKEE-
121 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE BRIEF
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION AND AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...NO
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NO BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
134 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

TXZ152-153-166-111915-
NACOGDOCHES-SAN AUGUSTINE-SHELBY-
134 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN EASTERN TEXAS...
     NACOGDOCHES...SAN AUGUSTINE AND SHELBY...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BLAND LAKE...ETOILE...MACUNE...NEUVILLE AND SAN AUGUSTINE...

AT 134 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ETOILE TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ETOILE TO 11 MILES SOUTH
OF ETOILE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NACOGDOCHES TO 23 MILES NORTH OF ROCKLAND TO 16 MILES NORTH OF
ROCKLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
223 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

LAZ001-002-010-112015-
BOSSIER-CADDO-DE SOTO-
223 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES...

IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     DE SOTO...CADDO AND BOSSIER...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     STONEWALL...

AT 223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STONEWALL...OR
13 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

LAZ010-011-017-018-112145-
DE SOTO-NATCHITOCHES-RED RIVER-SABINE-
343 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES...

IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     SABINE...RED RIVER...NATCHITOCHES AND DE SOTO...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     CAMPTI AND COUSHATTA...

AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF CONVERSE...OR 17
MILES SOUTH OF MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. SHOULD THIS STORM
INTENSIFY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

LAZ017-TXZ167-112130-
SABINE-
353 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES AND PARISHES...

IN EASTERN TEXAS...
     SABINE...
IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     SABINE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     MANY...HEMPHILL AND PINELAND...

AT 353 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTHEAST OF PINELAND...OR
23 MILES WEST OF TOLEDO BEND DAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. SHOULD THIS STORM
INTENSIFY...A WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

LAZ003-004-112200-
CLAIBORNE-WEBSTER-
417 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES...

IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     CLAIBORNE AND WEBSTER...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     HOMER AND MINDEN...

AT 417 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTHEAST OF MINDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

15

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