Small Craft Advisory for Winds 4, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PST TUE FEB 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY TODAY. LINGERING CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. A SECOND COLD STORM
FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES. GRADUALLY COOLER FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AT
TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...EXCLUDING THE
DESERTS. THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION SINCE YESTERDAY...IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...SHOWERS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIKELY DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LINGERING COLD AIR AND CLOUDS HANG AROUND TODAY AS A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES IN.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER BAJA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH LOOKS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE ONE THAT CAME THROUGH LAST
NIGHT...AND 500MB TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM GET AS COLD AS -29
DEG C. THUS...LOOKS LIKE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED  WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST...TO ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE DESERTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO
FALL DOWN TO AS LOW AS 3500 FEET OR SO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 3
TO 6 INCHES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OF STORM TOTAL SNOW
POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WITH
THIS TROUGH DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45-50
MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LIKELY.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL DURING OFFSHORE WINDS...WEATHER WILL BE DRY
AND WARMER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE ONSHORE DIRECTION...BRINGING IN A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. AT THIS TIME...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FEATURE WILL STAY
JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A
LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE IF FUTURE MODEL
RUNS SHOW THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY PREDICTED. NEVERTHELESS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN...BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
141555Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MTNS THROUGH 2000 UTC...MULTIPLE BKN CLDS
BTWN 2000-10000 FT MSL WITH MTNS OBSCD IN CLDS/PCPN. FROM 2000 UTC
TO 15/0200 UTC...SCT-FEW CLDS BTWN 2500-8000 FT MSL WITH HIER MTNS
OBSCD...AFTER 0200 UTC MOSTLY SKC.

DESERTS...SCT-FEW CLDS BTWN 8000-10000 FT MSL AND VSBY P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS STILL RUNNING SEVERAL FEET ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT TREND
SINCE 0600 PST HAS BEEN SHARP DOWNWARD TREND...LIKEWISE WINDS
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY. WILL STAY WITH DROPPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AT 1000 PST. MAY NEED A NEW HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE NEW WNW
SWELL AT 14 SECONDS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FT. MAIN IMPACTS WOULD BE
EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES OF SOUTH SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...HARRISON/PG
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
957 AM PST TUE FEB 14 2012

CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-PZZ750-775-151400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
30 NM-
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND-
957 AM PST TUE FEB 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A COLD WINTER STORM FROM THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH. AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL PONDING
IN LOW LYING AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET WITH
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET.

FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS AND NEAR
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN WEATHER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

HARRISON/PG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
951 AM PST TUE FEB 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 AM     SNOW             4 E CRESTLINE           34.25N 117.23W
02/14/2012  M6.0 INCH        SAN BERNARDINO     CA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            UP TO 6 INCHES ON ROUTE 18 NEAR 7000 FEET

0832 AM     SNOW             2 SSW MOUNT LAGUNA      32.84N 116.43W
02/14/2012  M4.0 INCH        SAN DIEGO          CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW FALL SO FAR IN PINE VALLEY IS 2.5 INCHES. LIGHT SNOW
            CONTINUES TO FALL.

0911 AM     SNOW             MOUNT LAGUNA            32.87N 116.42W
02/14/2012  M4.0 INCH        SAN DIEGO          CA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0911 AM     SNOW             6 NE VALLEY CENTER      33.28N 116.94W
02/14/2012  M3.0 INCH        SAN DIEGO          CA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            UP TO 3 INCHES REPORT. THE SNOW LEVEL REPORTED AT 3000
            FEET OUTSIDE OF RINCON

0911 AM     SNOW             RANCHITA                33.21N 116.52W
02/14/2012  M2.0 INCH        SAN DIEGO          CA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0911 AM     SNOW             1 SE CAMPO              32.60N 116.46W
02/14/2012  M4.0 INCH        SAN DIEGO          CA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GUATAY REPORT AT 4000 FEET

0911 AM     SNOW             IDYLLWILD-PINE COVE     33.75N 116.72W
02/14/2012  M2.0 INCH        RIVERSIDE          CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5228 FEET

&&

ATARDY