Small Craft Advisory for Winds 18, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY OVER AND WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION...WITH MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS BEING PRODUCED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN
ORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...SOME
DRIZZLE HAS ALSO BROUGHT LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG SOME OF THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH CLEAR SKIES FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...THE DRIER ATMOSPHERE BEHIND
IT SHOULD BRING CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES
PRETTY MUCH NO MARINE LAYER STRATUS TODAY OR TOMORROW...SO NIGHT
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

COOL WEATHER WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE DESERT SLOPES AND ADJACENT
DESERTS. LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SKY VALLEY AND WHITE WATER...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS...ALONG WITH WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL BRING
WARMING AND DRYING TO THE REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN THE FAVORED
PASSES AND CANYONS MAY REACH 60 MPH OR GREATER. THE OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WARMING...WITH DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN...BUT CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE
LAYER STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
231555Z...THROUGH 2100 UTC...FROM MTNS WESTWARD AND BELOW 6000 FT
MSL...BKN-SCT CLDS BETWEEN 3000 FT MSL AND 6000 FT MSL ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SE. TERRAIN OBSCD. VSBY 3-5SM IN
-RA/BR.
ABOVE 6000 FT MTNS AND EASTWARD ACROSS DESERTS...SCT CLDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND MOGR UDDFS DUE TO MTNS WAVES FROM WINDS W-SW 25-40 KT IN
THE 6000-15000 FT MSL LAYER.

2100-24/0300 UTC...W OF MTNS...SCT CLDS BETWEEN 3000 FT MSL AND 5000
FT MSL. OVER MTNS AND DESERTS...CONTD SCT CLDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND
MOGR UDDFS DUE TO MTN WAVES FROM WINDS W 25-40KT IN THE 6000-15000
FT MSL LAYER.

AFT 24/0300 UTC...FROM LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF MTNS WESTWARD AND
SOUTH OF A NEWPORT BAY...SANTA ANA RIVER CANYON...BANNING PASS
LINE...SCT-BKN CLDS WITH BASES 1800-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS 3500 FT
MSL...INLAND AIRPORTS/AIRBASES LIKE KRNM...KHMT...KRAL...MAY BE
IMPACTED WITH CIGS AOB 5 HND FT AGL/VSBY AOB 1SM. ELSEWHERE FEW CLDS
AOA 15000 FT MSL AND CONTD MOGR UDDFS OVER HIER MTNS AND EASTWARD
DUE TO MTN WAVES FROM WINDS W-NW 25-50KT IN THE 10000-20000 FT MSL
LAYER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BUILDING...MAINLY IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WINDS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL LIKELY ISSUE ADVISORY
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WAMIII GUIDANCE FOR SAN
CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY 46086 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING COMBINED SEA
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FEET WITH PERIOD 7-8 SECONDS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SWAN MODEL HAS BEEN MOSTLY
IGNORING THE CONTRIBUTION FROM THIS WAVE GROUP. THESE LOCALLY
GENERATED SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL WITH HIGH HUMIDITY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE DESERT SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERTS.

WEAK NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
DAYTIME HUMIDITY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO THE MID TEENS
TO LOW 20S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TAKING
PLACE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. DAYTIME HUMIDITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WILL
FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR

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