Blowing Dust Advisory 1, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
140 PM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND VALLEYS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE COAST AS WELL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO ARIZONA. COOLING EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. WARMING WITH COASTAL NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

BANDS OF MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING SOME TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH
DESERTS...SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR TEMECULA.
MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN BAJA...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.
THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH 1.87 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. WINDS ARE OUT
OF THE EAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 550 MB...AND THEN TURNING
MORE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE THAT. THESE
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS TODAY FROM SITTING OVER
ONE AREA FOR TOO LONG...REDUCING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
THE BULK OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...NORTHERN AREAS SAW MORE SUNSHINE...AND THUS THEY
HAVE GOTTEN MORE SURFACE HEATING. THEREFORE...THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS ARE SEEING THE MOST THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS...BOTH ELEVATED AND TERRAIN
BASED...WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS WELL.

WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW...SOME INSTABILITY...AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. IF A
VORTICITY MAX MOVES THROUGH...THIS WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL
AREAS MAY SEE A STRAY SPRINKLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...COOLING WILL COMMENCE TODAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND LOW PRESSURE ALOFT.

MODELS AGREE WITH KEEPING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING IT OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
COAST. ASSUMING CLOUDS CLEAR OUT ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE
HEATING...TERRAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TOMORROW...WHICH MEANS
THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE MORE LIABLE TO SIT OVER ONE SPOT FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. LEFTOVER MOISTURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
MAKES ITS WAY INTO ARIZONA. MARINE LAYER STRATUS LIKELY TO RETURN TO
THE COAST AND VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW MOVES IN
ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER...RESULTING IN NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS OVER THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN INLAND VALLEYS.
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL BE DRY...WITH PROBABLY ONLY A FEW CUMULUS
AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
092000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY BROKEN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
8000 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. TIMING OF ANY PRECIP WILL
BE VARIABLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. SHRA/TSRA
COULD IMPACT KONT...KRAL...KHMT...KF70...KRNM...KSEE...KMYF...KSDM
AND POSSIBLY EVEN KSAN. FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...STRATUS WILL
BE PATCHY ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL PROBABLY ONLY BRING A FEW HOURS
OF CIGS...1000 FEET OR LESS...TO ANY OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS SUCH AS
KSAN OR KCRQ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH BASES AROUND 8000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME THROUGH MONDAY BUT
ARE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN 5 NM OF KPSP/KTRM.
LOCAL SFC GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL

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