Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED WARM THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO LOWER AS HUMIDITY DECREASES. RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. DECREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SUNDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE MTNS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS AND
THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE RIVERSIDE MTNS AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER. STORMS
OVER BAJA ARE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARDS SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NW STATES WILL WEAKEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING WEST OF THE MTNS. SE FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
ENOUGH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE FLOW COULD PUSH STORMS WESTWARD INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS AS WELL. SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE ON SUNDAY SHOULD REDUCE THE
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY AND FAIRLY SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
BEING RESTRICTED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST
COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FURTHER WEAKENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AND DISPLACING IT TO THE SE. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY
COOLER WEATHER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES OR LESS. IT WILL ALSO BRING DRY SW FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEPER
AND MORE EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG SPREADING INLAND TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS. THE
REDUCTION IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT UNLIKELY THAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH WED.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST
COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD DRAW SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...THEN MOVE TO A POSITION OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA
COAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
112000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND PUSH 5-10 MILES INLAND AFT
12/0600Z TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF BKN/OVC SKIES THROUGH 12/1500Z
AT KCRQ AND KSAN. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING IS LOW DUE TO THE PATCH
NATURE OF THE STRATUS...BUT MOSTLY LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN
12/1000-1500Z. CLOUD BASES AROUND 600 FT MSL AND TOPS 1000 FT MSL.
VIS AT KCRQ MAY DROP BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 6SM BETWEEN 12/1200-1500Z.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FEET MSL ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MTS/DESERTS...ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS THROUGH 12/0100Z...THOUGH SOME
STORMS MAY DRIFT OVER THE DESERT SLOPES. BASES 10000 FEET MSL WITH
TOPS TO 40000 FEET...WITH UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM GILMA WILL BRING A SOUTH 3-4 FOOT/13-15
SECOND SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT...WEAKENING GRADUALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THUS...SOUTH-FACING BEACHES MAINLY IN ORANGE COUNTY WILL
HAVE 3-6 FOOT SURF...LOCAL 7 FEET. THE WESTERLY FACING BEACHES OF
SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE IMPACT WITH ONLY 2-4 FOOT
WAVES EXPECTED SOUTH OF CARLSBAD.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-120200-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID FOR INLAND AREAS WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX IS
LOW...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CONTINUE HOT AND HUMID FOR FAR INLAND AREAS SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL INDEX IS LOW. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS MINIMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN WEATHER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...
HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
310 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BIG BEAR LAKE           34.24N 116.89W
08/11/2012  M0.95 INCH       SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER BERT MOODY REPORTED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MOON
            RIDGE AREA OF BIG BEAR. RAINFALL OF 0.16 INCHES IN 10
            MINUTES AND 0.95 INCHES IN ONE HOUR. PEA SIZED HAIL WAS
            ALSO REPORTED.

1157 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BIG BEAR CITY           34.27N 116.85W
08/11/2012  U0.00 INCH       SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN BIG BEAR CITY FOR THE LAST 25
            MINUTES. SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING STARTING TO OCCUR.
            REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL FROM A FRIEND IN MOONRIDGE AREA.
            CONFIRMED LIGHTNING STRIKE NW OF SPOTTER LOCATION IN VAN
            DUSEN CANYON AREA, STARTING A SMALL FIRE.

0135 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BIG BEAR CITY           34.27N 116.85W
08/11/2012                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER HEARD ON HAM RADIO...CAL TRANS AND CHP HAVE
            CLOSED HIGHWAY 38 AT MILE MARKER 19 DUE TO A STREAM OF
            WATER RUSHING DOWN THE ROAD WITH EMBEDDED BOULDERS.

0201 PM     LIGHTNING        CAMPO                   32.61N 116.47W
08/11/2012                   SAN DIEGO          CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTH TOWARD HIGHWAY 94 AND I-8
            WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING HIT SPOTTERS WELL.

0221 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CAMPO                   32.61N 116.47W
08/11/2012  U0.00 INCH       SAN DIEGO          CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ON BUCKMAN
            SPRINGS ROAD. STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD MORENA DAM.
            FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZED HAIL ALSO OBSERVED WITH
            THIS STORM.

&&

TSTALL

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