Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
344 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...MESO-SCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012/

A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO CONTINUED TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI TO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH STEADILY
SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALSO MONITORING A MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS HAD RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED ALONG THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO CONGEAL AND MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO
THE EAST. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED AND
TAP INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY OF NEAR 2500 J/KG OF CAPE. NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS. REPORTS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INDICATE GUSTS UP TO 68 KTS AT COFFEYVILLE. IN
ADDITION HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AHEAD OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE.

RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE
LEADING LINE OF STORMS.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VFR IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 20-21Z AND
IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 02-03Z. DURING THIS PERIOD...MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
STORMS MOVE OVER THE AERODROMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM
06-07Z THROUGH SUNRISE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
419 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-082130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
419 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
  PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
  OF HALF DOLLARS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
  GROUND LIGHTNING.

  THE PRIMARY LINE OF STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE LAKE OF THE
  OZARKS TO SPRINGFIELD AND CASSVILLE BY 5 PM...AND FROM NEAR
  VIENNA TO FORT LEONARD WOOD AND GAINESVILLE BY 7 PM.

  THE ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH 9 PM
  AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
  MISSOURI OZARKS.

  GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD
  FRONT WITH THE RISK OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
  CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS FAR SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE STORMS.

  GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
  LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

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