Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS NOW GENERALLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH JOPLIN MISSOURI TO NEAR ST LOUIS MISSOURI. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE IN STORMS IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. THIS IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECTED THE
DEVELOPMENT TO FILLING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE
STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN LOW...SO EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
GENERALLY CONTINUE HOW IS HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHORT
LIVED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...PUTTING AN OUTFLOW OUT...WITH A
NEW UPDRAFT THEN DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRST ONE. THERE
IS ALSO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE IN PLACE WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HAIL RISK. STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY OF THE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE DIME TO
NICKEL SIZE DUE TO THE SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THESE STORMS AND THE
WARM CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND MORE
PERSISTED UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.

THERE WILL BE GOOD COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WITH THE SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STILL VARY GREATLY...WITH SOME LOCATION
RECEIVING VERY LITTLE TO OTHERS GETTING OVER AN INCH IN LOCALIZED
AREAS. THE FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT...ON THE 850MB FRONT WHICH IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT AND ALSO AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI FROM TIME TO TIME INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS IT WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO
THE MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S EACH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS JUST NORTH OF THE KJLN AND KSGF TAF SITES.
THE FRONT AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE COVERED THE THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIAL WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE COVERAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS TAF.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND
POSSIBLY IFR AT THE KBBG SITE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO RISE DURING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
244 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 90S ARE EXPECTED
  ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
  AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
  FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
  GENERALLY AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JOPLIN TO VIENNA
  MISSOURI LINE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL
  UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE
  STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO
  BE HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
  THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
  STRIKES...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL
  WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
  OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
  WITH ANY STORMS.

  THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE
  OF NEXT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
  EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JOPLIN TO VIENNA MISSOURI LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

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