Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM STORMS THAT IMPACTED KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TODAY IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS MIXED DOWN INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH
ALSO MITIGATED HEAT INDICES.

WITH A BACK DOOR FRONT PENETRATING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL COOL BY A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.  UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ARE STILL
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS DEFINITELY NOT FORECASTED...AND MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

BEGINNING SUNDAY...ALL LOCATIONS WILL START TO EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND.  INDICATIONS FROM THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE SUMMERTIME
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER OVER KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...CAUSING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER ALL OF THE NATIONS MID
SECTION FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS...ALONG WITH ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND
50S ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS.  THIS WILL MITIGATE HEAT INDICES FROM
REACHING 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS.

ONE ITEM TO MONITOR THAT COULD MESS THINGS UP FOR NEXT WEEK...BOTH
THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS SIGNAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO ROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IF THIS IS CORRECT...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD
UNFOLD...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...CAUSING
LOWER TEMPERATURES.  THE ECMWF DOES NOT ANALYZE THIS WAVE...AND KEEPS
THE REGION HOT AND DRY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR THE HEAT HEADLINE...THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY.  AT SOME POINT...WE WILL RE-EVALUATE ANY ADJUSTMENTS
THAT NEED TO BE MADE FOR NEXT WEEK.  AFTERNOON MIXING AND LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THIS DECISION.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 122 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/

FOR THE 19/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 20/0000Z. CLOUD COVER FROM
DISSIPATED TSTMS HAS LIMITED FURTHER TSTM REDEVELOPMENT BUT WILL
WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSTMS OVER SE KS HAVE
INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND DEVELOPMENT
EAST INTO THE KJLN AREA MAY BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
 AROUND 105 DEGREES AREA WIDE TODAY.

 SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
 HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
 WEATHER RISK FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.

 ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
 THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL FEATURE SMALL HAIL AND
 WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN
 AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF THE
 HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO
 AROUND 105 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 THE FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO ELEVATED ACROSS THE
 REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HOT AND DRY WEATHER
 PERSISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN / CRAMER

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