Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
//MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 208 PM//

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI. RUC SUGGESTS THAT 4000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW
PRESENT FOR UPDRAFTS TO WORK WITH.  THE ONE MITIGATING FACTOR IS
SHEAR VALUES...WHICH ARE VERY LOW.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ABOUT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...WHILE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ARE UNDER 50 M2S2.

THE PRIMARY RISK WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS. A 0-4KM THETA E DIFFERENTIAL RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 40
DEGREES...SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DOWNBURSTS.

CURRENTLY...THE LINE SEGMENT MOVING INTO BARRY COUNTY WILL HAVE A
HIGH RISK FOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR IMPACTS OVER TABLE ROCK LAKE...AS MANY BOATERS ARE ON
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS STORM IS CATCHING ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF
0-3 KM SHEAR...WITH A NEAR PERPENDICULAR INTERACTION...WHICH COULD
INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF THE LINE SEGMENT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

CRAMER

FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WILL BE THE SECONDARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LARGE THETA-E DIFFERENCES
WILL SEE A THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. SEVERE
RISKS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF TRAINING STORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AND COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING DEVELOP IF THIS
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI WHICH HAD THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THE PAST SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...THIS EVENING...AND
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION...WHICH WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS AN AIRFIELD...COULD CAUSE SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IDEAL FOR DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...GIVING WAY TO
FAIR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS STARTING TOMORROW MORNING.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-072045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
332 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
  PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL UP TO
  THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
  OF 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
  CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

  THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
  THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
  INTERACTS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
  TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
  THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.  A FEW
  OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY RISKS.

  THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FLASH
  FLOODING.

  THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED AREAS WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
  REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
  EAST OF U.S. 65. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             5 S MCDOWELL            36.75N 93.79W
05/06/2012  E0.88 INCH       BARRY              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             2 NW JENKINS            36.81N 93.71W
05/06/2012  E0.88 INCH       BARRY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             4 NW KIMBERLING CITY    36.68N 93.46W
05/06/2012  E0.50 INCH       STONE              MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             1 E KIMBERLING CITY     36.63N 93.40W
05/06/2012  E1.00 INCH       STONE              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             2 W BRANSON WEST        36.70N 93.41W
05/06/2012  E0.75 INCH       STONE              MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
413 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MOZ066-077-062145-
BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
413 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BARTON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 408 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VERDELLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE NEVADA...SHELDON AND VERDELLA.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3788 9437 3770 9409 3753 9441 3762 9452
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 222DEG 9KT 3764 9441

HATCH