Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER SURE HAS BEEN FANTASTIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  CONDITIONS
WILL START BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH TIME.

FOR TODAY...WE WILL INSERT A MENTION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WE'VE BEEN TRACKING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR THE LAST
THREE DAYS.  THIS FEATURE IS NOW POSITIONED OVER OKLAHOMA...AND WILL
PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE OZARKS REGION TODAY.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WINDS...WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
ORGANIZE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LARGE HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM TODAYS STORMS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW LINGERING STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHTS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BECOME DRY BY TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL OCCUR.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PUT A CAP ON OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THEREFORE...NICE WEATHER IS IN STORE...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS.  LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

A TYPICAL SPRING TIME STORM STRUCTURE...THAT WOULD CAUSE FLOODING
FOR THE OZARKS REGION WILL EVOLVE BY MONDAY.  A LARGE SCALE...AND
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG SOUTH PACIFIC CONNECTION...THAT IS
ALREADY ESTABLISHED.  THIS SOUTH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM CAN BE
VIEWED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WILL BE PULLED DIRECTLY INTO THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THIS EPISODE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL COMMENCE MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE IN INTERMITTENT FASHION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE HEIGHTENED FLOOD RISK...SEVERAL INGREDIENTS WILL ALSO
COME TOGETHER FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODEST TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL
CREATE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW.  THE GFS
MAINTAINS KEEPS THE LOW CUTOFF A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS
WOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.  AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
60S WILL BE COMMON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012/

FOR THE 17/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY SETTING OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAD SIMILAR TIMING TO THE
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH THE DISTURBANCE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE
LATE DAY 17/21Z-18/00Z TIME FRAME. WENT MVFR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD SEE IFR CAT VISIBILITY IN BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN.

DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1011 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181515-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1011 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
 APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL
 BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING...CAPABLE
 OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

 THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
 POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
 THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 A WIDESPREAD EPISODE OF FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE MONDAY
 THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECASTED
 OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN BOTH FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
 STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND FLOODING OF MAIN STEM RIVERS.

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
 NIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH
 INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
 LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY
 HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1030 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 AM     HAIL             VERSAILLES              38.43N 92.84W
03/17/2012  E0.25 INCH       MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1032 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 AM     HAIL             5 SSE FLORENCE          38.53N 92.93W
03/17/2012  E0.25 INCH       MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1101 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HAIL             AVA                     36.95N 92.66W
03/17/2012  E0.25 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   PUBLIC

&&

MGRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1105 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

MOZ057-171630-
MILLER MO-
1105 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MILLER COUNTY UNTIL 1130
AM CDT...

AT 1102 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ULMAN...OR 9 MILES EAST OF OSAGE BEACH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRUMLEY...MARYS HOME...SAINT ELIZABETH...
TUSCUMBIA AND ULMAN.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3834 9240 3834 9228 3833 9226 3834 9222
      3832 9219 3825 9219 3802 9244 3809 9253
      3837 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 215DEG 30KT 3816 9243

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1113 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

MOZ092-096-171645-
DOUGLAS MO-WRIGHT MO-
1113 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL DOUGLAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WRIGHT COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

AT 1111 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...OR 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF AVA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
DOUGLAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL WRIGHT COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3718 9252 3710 9240 3698 9259 3701 9264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 220DEG 22KT 3702 9258

GRIFFIN

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