Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

CURRENTLY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS IS SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS...EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
MODEST...SHEAR IS WEAK. AS A RESULT A FEW HAILERS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH A RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WISE AS OUR
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON WANES IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AND EXITS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER WARM EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT...
WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT TODAY. FRIDAY WILL BE
WARM...AKIN TO WEDNESDAY/S WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK NEAR 80
DEGREES AGAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE
A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...SO IF ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE
ISOLATED AND LIKELY SHORT LIVED.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
MUCH LIKE TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF TEMPERATURES...BUT READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK AROUND
80 ON SUNDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS NEAR PERSISTENCE
WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z SUITE OF MODEL OUTPUT OFFERS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER
NORTH AMERICA WITH A STRONG TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BIGGEST CHALLENGES TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE POPS/TEMPS. SHOULD STILL OBSERVE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY LOWS GIVEN A CONTINUED MOIST
ATMOSPHERE)...HIGHS HOWEVER MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS WE OBSERVED THIS
PAST WEEK (THOUGH STILL IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS). HAVE
CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF LIKELY POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL HAS INCREASED. BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW SETS UP. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF IS THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE BY...THUS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE GIVEN CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT THE TERMINALS. HAVE ONLY INDICATED CB GROUP FOR NOW...AS
TIMING/COVERAGE OF TSRA IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION OF
PREVAILING GROUP ATTM.

TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND THUS EXPECT
RAPID DECREASE AFTER SUNSET OF ANY CONVECTION. ONLY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WILL BE MARGINAL LLWS AT JLN AND BBG.

BOXELL

&&

.CLIMATE...

SPRINGFIELD (KSGF)

DAY    DATE    TEMP   YEAR

THR    15TH     79    1983
FRI    16TH     84    1945

JOPLIN (KJLN)

DAY    DATE    TEMP   YEAR

THR    15TH     80    1983
FRI    16TH     78    1995

ROLLA-VICHY (KVIH)

DAY    DATE    TEMP   YEAR

THR    15TH     75    1995
FRI    16TH     78    1982

WEST PLAINS (KUNO)

DAY    DATE    TEMP   YEAR

THR    15TH     78    1977
FRI    16TH     82    1982

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
113 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
  ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE THE
  CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED...A FEW
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
  AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON ALMOST A DAILY
  BASIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
  DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
142 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

MOZ096-105-151915-
DOUGLAS MO-OZARK MO-
142 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DOUGLAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
OZARK COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 138 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WASOLA...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AVA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRUSHYKNOB...DRURY...GENTRYVILLE...
NOBLE...ROCKBRIDGE...SQUIRES...VANZANT AND WASOLA.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN OZARK COUNTIES...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3687 9274 3706 9242 3706 9235 3683 9216
      3671 9261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 247DEG 13KT 3682 9255

BOXELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

MOZ058-152045-
MARIES MO-
323 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARIES COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

AT 321 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BELLE...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OWENSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BELLE.

LAT...LON 3829 9163 3819 9164 3819 9172 3827 9182
      3830 9179 3830 9167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 237DEG 10KT 3826 9172

KARDELL

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