Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Springfield, MO

315 
WWUS53 KSGF 130435
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

MOC119-145-130445-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-120813T0445Z/
MCDONALD MO-NEWTON MO-
1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON AND
NORTHWESTERN MCDONALD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN SPRINGFIELD.

LAT...LON 3669 9462 3688 9463 3688 9462 3691 9428
      3667 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 270DEG 31KT 3678 9443

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
840 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 840 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA AND A FEW CELLS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. FURTHER
NORTH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF
KANSAS CITY CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND MAY CLIP FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF BENTON/MORGAN COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. 00Z
KSGF SOUNDING INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH
READINGS (AT BEST) IN THE 55F TO 60F RANGE. ALL DAY SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING DEWPOINTS APPROACHING
70F...THIS JUST IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. AS A RESULT...EXPECTATIONS
FOR CAPE NEED TO BE TEMPERED QUITE A BIT.

RIGHT NOW...THE OUTLOOK AREA IS IN BETWEEN HIGHER AND MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR TO THE NORTH (NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA) AND GREATER
INSTABILITY/CAPE (EASTERN KANSAS). REGARDLESS...INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY
NARROW CORRIDOR OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED AND MIXED
LAYER CAPE. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR MID LEVEL LIFT AS WELL WITH
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL FLOW REGIME. VERY
LITTLE CAP EXISTS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH CIN SHOULD INCREASE A BIT
AT THE SURFACE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ELEVATED PARCELS...
HOWEVER...REMAIN LARGELY UNCAPPED WITH ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 20 J/KG OF
CIN.

AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. 30 TO 35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CELLS...THOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS A BIT LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND SHOULD STEADILY DECREASE HEADING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE CELLS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MO.

UPDATE TO THE HWO AND FORECAST IS FORTHCOMING.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWFA.

A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN KS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MO THIS
EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS HAMPERED DIURNAL HEATING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BEST DEPICTION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE MAJOR SHORT TERM MODELS IS THE NAM...AND AM
USING THAT AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE VERSUS THE SREF AND GFS WHICH
CONTINUE THEIR WOEFUL HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN
POOR HANDLING OF THERMODYNAMICS AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CWFA WITH
TEMPERATURE GETTING A BOOST WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS (0-6KM) WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL. PROGGED SOUNDINGS...BACKED UP
BY OBSERVATIONS...STILL INDICATE A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH DEW POINTS
STRUGGLING RIGHT NOW WITH DEEPER MIXING OVER KS AND NORTHERN OK. THE
RESULTANT INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND STORM COVERAGE IS
STILL IN QUESTION GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...MUCH DRIER
THAN SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING. WILL WATCH TRENDS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT LEAVING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. WINDS KICKING UP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE EXITING SFC LOW/FRONT MAY PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN OUR DROUGHT RELATED DRY/DORMANT
VEGETATION.

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
SUPPRESSED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ALLOWING AN ACTIVE ZONAL
PATTERN TO DEVELOP IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CAN'T ALSO RULE
OUT SOME NIGHTTIME TSTM MCS ACTIVITY...BUT BETTER SUPPORT FOR THAT
LOOKS TO BE WHERE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE (CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...THEN POSSIBLY TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING).

LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 659 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS (JLN/SGF/BBG)...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE IS A BIT SPARSE...AS A
RESULT WHAT DEVELOPMENT THAT CAN BE MUSTERED WILL LIKELY TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS TO SPIN UP AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL SITES
UNTIL TIMING CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION. THERE IS SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW/THERMAL TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER
CIG BASES SHOULD ONLY FLIRT WITH HIGH END MVFR AT BEST. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
914 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-140215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
914 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
 COLD FRONT THAT WILL STEADILY MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
 THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. DUE TO MODEST WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED
 INSTABILITY...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. A FEW
 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING
 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MOST STORMS WILL
 PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF...LOCALLY
 HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES WILL OCCUR MONDAY WITH MODERATELY
 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
 TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OVERALL
 CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE
 PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 DUE TO THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
 FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN