Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2012/

DRY WEATHER CONTINUED OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY OVER THE MID MS/WESTERN OH RIVER VLYS. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WERE UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE
OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE FIRST IS OVER
WESTERN IA SUPPORTING A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION...THE SECOND
IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

WEAK FORCING WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH EITHER A WEAK
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION OVER IA
MAY SPARK SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TODAY...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL FAVOR PULSE TYPE CONVECTION ORGANIZED NEAR LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE WITH A LOCALIZED DAMAGING TSTM
WIND/DOWNBURST THREAT. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR TODAY
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER SFC HEATING.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MS VLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. A STRONGER SFC CONVERGENCE/FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION. STRONGER CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT
CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MO
OZARKS INTO SOUTHEAST MO. GIVEN FAIRLY LOW PROGGED
MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWATS) WITH A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...NOT REALLY VERY IMPRESSED BY
RAIN CHANCES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING...THERE WOULD AGAIN BE A
RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH A BIT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR/FLOW
ALOFT.

MUCH COOLER...BUT STILL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MIDWEST BEHIND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME GUSTINESS TO THE NORTHEAST
WINDS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH FRI WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. IN FACT...WITH ONLY SPOTTY AND OR SHORT LIVED RAIN
EXPECTED...DRY VEGETATION WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER HIGH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE EVEN WITH ONLY LIGHT-MODERATE WINDS. WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME LIGHTNING
SPARKED FIRES ARE POSSIBLE AS WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN OVER THE PAST
WEEKS.

RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND MID MS VLY SUNDAY-MON AND WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD.

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
THROW IN VCTS AND CB IN THE TAFS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A SHIFT OF THE SURFACE WIND TO THE NORTHWEST.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
  TONIGHT OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
  STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRAIGHT
  LINE DOWNBURST WINDS AND ONE INCH HAIL POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
  THREAT AREAS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
  AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS. STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

  TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH WELL UP INTO THE 90S TO NEAR
  100 DEGREES TODAY. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

  DRY VEGETATION FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOW AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY EVENING HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
  WILDFIRES. LIGHTNING AND WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
  SPARK GRASS AND BRUSH FIRES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN DOES NOT OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  A COLD FRONT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS ON
  THURSDAY.

  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
  WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

  AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE. ON
  FRIDAY...MODERATELY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
  WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS FOR
  ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 .

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN