Small Craft Advisory 959, NWS Seattle, WA

780 
WHUS76 KSEW 121541
MWWSEW

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
841 AM PDT THU APR 12 2012

PZZ150-153-156-170-173-176-122345-
/O.CON.KSEW.SC.Y.0959.000000T0000Z-120413T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-
841 AM PDT THU APR 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES...SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE
  SOUTH MIDDAY. WIND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 5 FEET MIDDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

921 
WHUS76 KSEW 122148
MWWSEW

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
248 PM PDT THU APR 12 2012

PZZ150-153-156-170-173-176-130400-
/O.CON.KSEW.SC.Y.0959.000000T0000Z-120413T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-
248 PM PDT THU APR 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WILL
  TURN TO THE SOUTH AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING. WIND WAVES 2 TO 5
  FEET THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

153 
WHUS76 KSEW 130326
MWWSEW

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
826 PM PDT THU APR 12 2012

.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

PZZ150-153-156-170-173-176-131130-
/O.CAN.KSEW.SC.Y.0959.000000T0000Z-120413T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KSEW.SW.Y.0033.120413T0326Z-120414T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-
826 PM PDT THU APR 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM
PDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
SATURDAY.

* SWELLS...WESTERLY 10 TO 13 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
  THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE THE FORECAST FOR DETAILS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES WILL
BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID SHOALING
AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING WAVES IN
SHOALING AREAS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK MUCH FARTHER
FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED. REMEMBER...
BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$

PZZ110-131130-
/O.NEW.KSEW.RB.Y.0015.120413T0326Z-120414T1200Z/
GRAYS HARBOR BAR-
826 PM PDT THU APR 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
SATURDAY. 

* BAR CONDITION...ROUGH WITH BREAKERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MAXIMUM
  EBB CURRENTS.

* COMBINED SEAS...10 TO 12 FEET.

* FIRST EBB...1030 PM THIS EVENING.

* SECOND EBB...11 AM FRIDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR MEANS THAT WAVE CONDITIONS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT IN OR NEAR HARBOR ENTRANCES.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
210 AM THU APR 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
COOL WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND AN UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...I HAVE
LARGELY KEPT CHANCE WORDING IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...AS
THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE HIT OR MISS AND QPF APPEARS QUITE
LIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY...TAKING MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. WHILE WE WILL BE ON
THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS. WITH THE RETURN
OF SOME PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO AROUND 130W. THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM ATTEMPTS TO
WRAP WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA AROUND SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA. FOR NOW...I HAVE
DISCOUNTED THIS SCENARIO AND KEPT SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
CASCADES ON SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH WEAK
RIDGES...THEY ARE RATHER DIRTY WITH PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS GETTING THROUGH. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONFIRM THIS. I SCALED BACK THE ORIGINAL SUNNY FORECAST TO A
MORE REALISTIC PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. NONETHELESS...EVEN WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND 500MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOW 560S DAM...THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING THE NEXT ORGANIZED FRONT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE
MODELS DIVERGE MORE IN THE DETAILS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. IF THE ECMWF
IS TO BE BELIEVED...TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY BRING A
SALVAGEABLE DAY TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY REAL
RIDGING. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. 27

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR MASS OVERNIGHT BUT FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING ALLOWING SOME DRYING...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME OF
THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP THAT ALLOWED OLM TO DROP TO 1/4SM FG EARLY
THIS MORNING. SO THE MORNING MAY HAVE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS
BEFORE A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS MORE OF
A TROUGH WITH NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS OUGHT TO
PUSH BACK THROUGH WRN WA AND A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST MAY GET QUITE
BLUSTERY THIS AFTERNOON. 19

KSEA...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING THE 09Z TAF MUCH...BUT THE MORNING
HOURS MAY SEE RATHER VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS THE AIR MASS DRIES A
LITTLE IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND TURNING MORE EASTERLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT/TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS THAT SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH. 19

&&

.MARINE...A WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTH OREGON COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE
SOUTH COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVING NORTH TO VANCOUVER
ISLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A BURST OF BLUSTERY WEATHER FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND IT MAY BECOME RATHER BREEZY FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE
INLAND WATERS AS WELL. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LIGHT WINDS BUT THEN AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OFFSHORE WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT SHOULD NEED
ADVISORIES FRI NITE AND AGAIN SAT NITE. 19

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML (ALL LOWERCASE)