River Flood Advisory 4, NWS Seattle, WA

617 
WGUS86 KSEW 300812
FLSSEW

FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 
1212 AM PST MON JAN 30 2012

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...

  SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH AFFECTING MASON COUNTY.
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 2

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF OR
BECOME LIGHT...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER AT POTLATCH IS PREDICTED
TO CREST TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE OR AT 16.2 FEET MONDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THIS IS THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD
RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. 

&&

WAC045-301712-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120131T0221Z/
/SRPW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1212 AM PST MON JAN 30 2012

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 11:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 16.2 FEET EARLY MONDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING OF PASTURE LANDS...WITH WATER FLOWING QUICKLY OVER WEST 
  BOURGAULT ROAD AND SKOKOMISH VALLEY ROAD.

$$

091 
WGUS86 KSEW 301413
FLSSEW

FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 
613 AM PST MON JAN 30 2012

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...

  SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH AFFECTING MASON COUNTY.
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 3

THE SKOKOMISH RIVER AT POTLATCH CRESTED AT 16.1 FEET LATE LAST NIGHT 
AND WAS RECEDING. EXPECT THE RIVER TO FALL BELOW THE FLOOD ADVISORY 
STAGE OF 15.5 FEET LATER THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THIS IS THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD
RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. 

&&

WAC045-302313-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120131T0221Z/
/SRPW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
613 AM PST MON JAN 30 2012

THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 6:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL LOCALLY SPILL OVER 
  ITS BANKS INTO LOW AREAS OF THE SKOKOMISH VALLEY.

$$

646 
WGUS86 KSEW 302237
FLSSEW
FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 
237 PM PST MON JAN 30 2012

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH AFFECTING MASON COUNTY.
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 4

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC045-302307-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120131T0221Z/
/SRPW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
237 PM PST MON JAN 30 2012

THE FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT  1:45 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 16.1 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 14.7 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL LOCALLY SPILL OVER 
  ITS BANKS INTO LOW AREAS OF THE SKOKOMISH VALLEY.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN JAN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SHOWERS. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME NIGHT AND MORNING FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS AND SOME BREEZY WINDS. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5000
AND 6000 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET
TONIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MOUNT BAKER COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF
NEW SNOW TONIGHT ONCE SNOW LEVELS LOWER A BIT. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CASCADES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MEAN A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A SHORT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A MORE ORGANIZED SHOT OF
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE DECREASING SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE IN. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THIS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WITH
THIS PATTERN EACH DAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL FROM A COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE
LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE THAT THE RIVER WILL CREST A FEW
TENTHS OF A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN FALL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THE RIVER IS
JUST BEGINNING TO RISE AS THE RAINS PICK UP. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
MASON COUNTY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW. AN ADVISORY MAY BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING IF CURRENT FORECASTS SEEM TO BE PANNING OUT.

OTHER RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES WILL SEE SHARP
RISES TONIGHT. SOME RIVERS MAY CLIMB TO WITHIN A FOOT OR TWO OF
FLOOD STAGE BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON ANY OF THESE RIVERS AT
THIS TIME.

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...THE FRONTAL SYS OVR WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING WITH RAIN TURNING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS STILL FAIRLY WARM
AND WET THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF FAIRLY LOW CIGS AND VSBY. SW
FLOW ALOFT ARND 40KT 850-700MB WILL SHIFT TO WNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND EASE BHND THE FRONT. MTNS OBSCD. 19

KSEA...PERIODS OF RAIN AND FAIRLY LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING TIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THRU WRN WA. THE
AIR MASS WILL COOL AND DRY MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CURRENT
TAF IS IN THE BALLPARK. 19

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH WIND IN THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA TODAY...BUT BREEZY IN OTHER AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN HOOD
CANAL EAST TO EVERETT. THE OLM-BLI GRADIENT IS FCST TO STAY ARND
+3.5MB OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS IN THE FCSTS. BHND THE
FRONT THE FLOW WILL TURN WLY COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT TNGT. A LULL
IN THE WEATHER MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SYSTEM MON NITE AND THEN A
STRONGER FRONT TUE NIGHT. 19

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET.
    .FLOOD WATCH MASON COUNTY.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT ADMIRALTY INLET.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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