Gale Watch 1, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST MON JAN 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING SPOTTY HEAVY
SNOW. A STRONGER WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. THE MOST VIGOROUS SHOWERS
SEEMED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY
THIS EVENING. ALSO THE LATEST NAM SHOWS A LARGE BLOB OF 4 INCHES OF
SNOW TONIGHT OVER THOSE AREAS. ADDED THOSE ZONES TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING TONIGHT. THEY...ALONG WITH THE COAST AND MOST OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR...WILL GET 2-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN SHOWERS. THE
PRECIPITATION IS SPOTTY WHICH MEANS THE VARIATION IN AMOUNTS COULD
BE LARGER THAN USUAL...WITH SOME AREAS GETTING NOTHING.

A DISTINCT HOLE IN THE SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE SEATTLE AREA. ALL
OTHER AREAS THAT HAD BEEN UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ALREADY UPDATED THE
ZONES AND GRIDS.

THE BIG STORY IS DEFINITELY HEAVY SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON...A WARM OVERRUNNING SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD SNOW NORTH OVER EVENTUALLY ALL AREAS. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
IMPRESSIVE. A COUPLE OF INCHES COULD FALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER 4-6 INCHES COULD FALL WEDNESDAY...AND A FEW MORE INCHES
COULD FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE TRANSITION TO RAIN IS PROBLEMATIC. SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SEATTLE NORTH WILL
LIKELY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO CONTINUE. THE GFS DOES NOT WARM
THE SEATTLE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AND HOLDS COLD AIR OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD MEAN NO BIG RAIN TO WASH AWAY THE
SNOW...WHICH THEREFORE MIGHT NOT MELT UNTIL FRIDAY OR SO. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE
CONSISTENCY OR CONTINUITY IN THE LONG RANGE...BUT A CHANGE TO A
WARMER...WET...AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY. AT THIS
TIME A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SMALLER AND MORE FLOOD PRONE RIVERS
MAY SEE SOME FLOODING AFTER WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION OF
PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM SNOW TO RAIN COULD RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW
IS ON THE GROUND BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVALANCHE...WARNING ISSUED FOR WEST SLOPES CASCADES AND OLYMPICS AS
VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. RECENT COLD LOW DENSITY SNOW OF 1-2 FEET IS VERY
POORLY BONDED TO A HARD CRUST SURFACE...WHEN LOADED WITH THE
EXPECTED HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH VERY STRONG WIND TRANSPORT LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND BEYOND...THIS IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
MAJOR AND SIGNIFICANT AVALANCHE CYCLE. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE
RATHER LARGE SLIDES THAT MAY TRAVEL VERY FAST AND RUN LONG DISTANCES
GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK STRUCTURE. TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS
NOT RECOMMENDED UNTIL CONDITIONS CHANGE. SEE NWAC.US FOR DETAILS
KRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND NEAR PACHENA POINT WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AT 9 PM
WITH SKY CONDITIONS ROUGHLY BKN-OVC010 BKN-OVC015-022 OVC035-040.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 2-4SM. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...GENERALLY SPEAKING...THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...AND AT THE
COAST. THE PUGET SOUND REGION -- BY CONTRAST -- WILL RECEIVE LESS
SNOW SHOWERS AS IT WILL BE IN THE SHADOW OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 8 TO 14 KT S/SW WIND 8-12 KT...LIKELY SHIFTING TO
NORTHERLY AROUND 20Z TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND 2
INCHES. THE TEMPERATURE WILL CHANGE LITTLE TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
FALLING TO AN OVERNIGHT LOW NEAR 31 DEGREES...THEN WARMING TO A HIGH
NEAR 34 TUESDAY. A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 8 INCHES
LIKELY. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFF VANCOUVER
ISLAND NEAR PACHENA POINT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT
PERIOD...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY IN
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

A VIGOROUS DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...CENTRAL STRAIT...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED.

ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT COAST...NORTH INTERIOR SKAGIT AND
     ISLAND COUNTY NORTHWARD...AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
    .WINTER STORM WARNING MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
    .WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ALL OTHER ZONES.
    .WINTER STORM WATCH ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND PUGET SOUND THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT
     TONIGHT.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
    .GALE WATCH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY COASTAL
     WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT...CENTRAL STRAIT...NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

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