Flood Watch 3, NWS Seattle, WA

694 
WGUS66 KSEW 200018 CCA
FFASEW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
412 PM PST THU JAN 19 2012

.PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ON TOP OF THE SNOW
BLANKETING ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON COULD RIVER FLOODING IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

WAC009-027-029-031-033-035-041-045-053-055-057-061-067-073-202030-
/O.COR.KSEW.FA.A.0003.120121T0000Z-120122T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLALLAM-GRAYS HARBOR-ISLAND-JEFFERSON-KING-KITSAP-LEWIS-MASON-
PIERCE-SAN JUAN-SKAGIT-SNOHOMISH-THURSTON-WHATCOM-
412 PM PST THU JAN 19 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES... GRAYS HARBOR...CLALLAM...ISLAND... 
  JEFFERSON...SAN JUAN...SKAGIT...WHATCOM...KING...KITSAP... 
  LEWIS...MASON...PIERCE...SNOHOMISH...THURSTON. 

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND 2 INCHES OVER THE
  WILLAPA HILLS COULD FALL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND COMBINE
  WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF WATER FROM LOWLAND SNOW MELT DURING THE STORM.

* SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 5500 FEET FRIDAY AND REMAIN THERE
  UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHEN IT WILL FALL TO 2500 FEET.

* THE RAINFALL THAT IS FORECAST AND THE SNOW MELT THAT IS POSSIBLE
  COULD DRIVE THE SKOKOMISH AND CHEHALIS RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
  BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EVENING. IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR...IT
  WILL LIKELY BE MINOR.

* ALL AREAS COULD SEE EXCESSIVE SURFACE RUNOFF WITH PONDING OF
  WATER...PONDING AROUND CLOGGED DRAINS OR CULVERTS...AND/OR SMALL
  STREAMS GOING OVER THEIR BANKS. WORSE AREA FLOODING COULD OCCUR
  IN SPOTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS OF DEEP LOWLAND SNOW AND
  HEAVIER RAIN LIKE THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

* SNOW MELTING INTO THE SOIL AND THE UPCOMING ADDITION OF RAINFALL
  WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LANDSLIDES. THE USGS SEATTLE
  LANDSLIDE INDEX AND THE WASHINGTON LANDSLIDE INDEX DO NOT
  ACCOUNT FOR SNOW AND SNOW MELT AT THIS TIME SO WILL LIKELY BE
  LOWER THAN THEY SHOULD.


* UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT AND THE SNOW MELT IS A BIG
  PART OF THAT UNCERTAINTY...IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL QUESTION OF
  EXACTLY HOW MUCH AND HOW INTENSE THE RAIN WILL BE. WINDS ARE
  LIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM TO THE MID FORTIES WHICH
  WOULD NOT ARGUE FOR A FAST MELTING OF SNOW COMPARED TO A STRONG
  WIND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...SNOW MELT CAN
  ACT IN SUCH A WAY AS TO HOLD THE RAIN WATER AND THEN MELT AND
  RELEASE THE WATER IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH
  WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE RIVER RUNOFF. IT IS EXTREMELY
  DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW THE SNOW WILL MELT. IN ADDITION...RIVER
  MODELS DO NOT ALWAYS HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL SO
  SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS MAY NOT FULLY INDICATE THE EXISTING
  FLOOD RISK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING BUT
FLOODING IS NOT IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE READY TO ACT
QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$

951 
WGUS66 KSEW 202227
FFASEW

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
227 PM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

.PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ON TOP OF THE SNOW
BLANKETING ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON COULD RIVER FLOODING IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

WAC009-027-029-031-033-035-041-045-053-055-057-061-067-073-211400-
/O.CON.KSEW.FA.A.0003.120121T0000Z-120122T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLALLAM-GRAYS HARBOR-ISLAND-JEFFERSON-KING-KITSAP-LEWIS-MASON-
PIERCE-SAN JUAN-SKAGIT-SNOHOMISH-THURSTON-WHATCOM-
227 PM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES... GRAYS HARBOR...CLALLAM...ISLAND...JEFFERSON...SAN 
  JUAN...SKAGIT...WHATCOM...KING...KITSAP...LEWIS...MASON... 
  PIERCE...SNOHOMISH...THURSTON. 

* THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS...2 INCHES OVER THE
  WILLAPA HILLS AND CASCADES...AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
  LOWLANDS COULD FALL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND COMBINE WITH UP TO
  1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM LOWLAND SNOW MELT DURING THE STORM.

* SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 4500 FEET TODAY...RISE TO 5500 FT
  TONIGHT BUT WILL FALL TO TO 2000 FT SATURDAY TURNING SOME OF THE
  PRECIPITATION TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

* THE RAINFALL THAT IS FORECAST AND THE SNOW MELT THAT IS POSSIBLE
  COULD DRIVE RIVERS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS AND THE
  INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BETWEEN EARLY SATURDAY
  MORNING AND SATURDAY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES THE SKOKOMISH...
  CHEHALIS...AND NEWAUKUM RIVERS. IF FLOODING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL
  LIKELY BE MINOR.

* ALL AREAS COULD SEE EXCESSIVE SURFACE RUNOFF WITH PONDING OF
  WATER...PONDING AROUND CLOGGED DRAINS OR CULVERTS...AND/OR SMALL
  STREAMS GOING OVER THEIR BANKS FRIDAY NIGHT. WORSE AREA FLOODING COULD OCCUR
  IN SPOTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS OF DEEP LOWLAND SNOW AND
  HEAVIER RAIN LIKE THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

* THE THREAT OF LANDSLIDES WILL INCREASE DUE TO SNOW MELTING INTO
  THE SOIL AND THE ADDITION OF RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE
  USGS SEATTLE LANDSLIDE INDEX AND THE WASHINGTON LANDSLIDE INDEX
  DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR SNOW AND SNOW MELT AT THIS TIME SO WILL
  LIKELY BE LOWER THAN THEY SHOULD BE.

* UNCERTAINTY FOR FLOODING IS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT AND THE SNOW
  MELT IS A BIG PART OF THAT UNCERTAINTY...IN ADDITION TO THE
  USUAL QUESTION OF EXACTLY HOW MUCH AND HOW INTENSE THE RAIN WILL
  BE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONG BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
  WARMING TO THE MID FORTIES. HOWEVER...SNOW MELT CAN ACT IN SUCH
  A WAY AS TO HOLD THE RAIN WATER AND THEN MELT AND RELEASE THE
  RAIN AND MELT WATER TOGETHER IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF
  TIME WHICH WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE RIVER RUNOFF. IT IS
  EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW THE SNOW WILL MELT. IN
  ADDITION...RIVER MODELS COULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS
  RARE SITUATION SO SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS MAY NOT FULLY
  INDICATE THE EXISTING FLOOD RISK.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING BUT
FLOODING IS NOT IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE READY TO ACT
QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$

JBB

218 
WGUS66 KSEW 210046
FFASEW

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
446 PM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

.PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY ON TOP OF THE SNOW
BLANKETING ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON COULD RIVER FLOODING IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

WAC009-029-031-033-035-053-055-057-061-073-210200-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120122T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLALLAM-ISLAND-JEFFERSON-KING-KITSAP-PIERCE-SAN JUAN-SKAGIT-
SNOHOMISH-WHATCOM-
446 PM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY.

$$

WAC027-041-045-067-212045-
/O.CON.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120122T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAYS HARBOR-LEWIS-MASON-THURSTON-
446 PM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES... GRAYS HARBOR...LEWIS...MASON...THURSTON. 

* THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS...2 INCHES OVER THE 
  WILLAPA HILLS AND CASCADES...AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE 
  LOWLANDS COULD FALL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND COMBINE WITH UP 
  TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM LOWLAND SNOW MELT DURING THE 
  STORM. 

* SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 4500 FEET TODAY...RISE TO 5500 
  FT TONIGHT BUT WILL FALL TO TO 2000 FT SATURDAY TURNING SOME 
  OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING BUT
FLOODING IS NOT IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE READY TO ACT
QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$

JBB

841 
WGUS66 KSEW 211218
FFASEW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
418 AM PST SAT JAN 21 2012

.MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SOME FLOOD-PRONE RIVERS IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND LOW ELEVATION SNOW MELT RUNOFF.

WAC045-211330-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120122T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MASON-
418 AM PST SAT JAN 21 2012

...FLOOD WATCH HAS ENDED FOR MASON COUNTY...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS ENDED.

* THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MASON COUNTY HAS ENDED...AND A FLOOD WARNING
  FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS IN EFFECT.

$$

WAC027-041-067-220030-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120122T1400Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAYS HARBOR-LEWIS-THURSTON-
418 AM PST SAT JAN 21 2012

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES...GRAYS HARBOR...LEWIS...THURSTON.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE CHEHALIS RIVER...ITS TRIBUTARY
  THE NEWAUKUM RIVER...AND THE DESCHUTES RIVER. THE NEWAUKUM AND
  DESCHUTES RIVERS WILL CREST CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON
  OR THIS EVENING. THE CHEHALIS RIVER WILL CREST IN CENTRALIA AND
  GRAND MOUND ON SUNDAY...AND FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IN GRAYS HARBOR
  COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT.

* ONE TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER SOUTHWEST
  WASHINGTON SINCE FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH 1 TO 2
  INCHES OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW MELT RUNOFF. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE
  TODAY...BUT THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING BUT
FLOODING IS NOT IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE READY TO ACT
QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$

MCDONNAL
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

807 
WGUS66 KSEW 220013
FFASEW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
413 PM PST SAT JAN 21 2012

.MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SOME FLOOD-PRONE RIVERS IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND LOW ELEVATION SNOW MELT RUNOFF.

WAC027-041-067-221800-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120122T1800Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAYS HARBOR-LEWIS-THURSTON-
413 PM PST SAT JAN 21 2012

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES... GRAYS HARBOR...LEWIS...THURSTON. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE MID TO LOWER CHEHALIS RIVER.
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER WILL CREST IN GRAND MOUND TONIGHT OR EARLY
  SUNDAY MORNING AND CREST AT CENTRALIA SUNDAY MORNING. THESE
  CREST COULD BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IN GRAYS
  HARBOR COUNTY THE CHEHALIS RIVER COULD GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT
  PORTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

* RAINFALL WILL DECREASE TODAY...BUT PREVIOUS RAIN FALL AND SNOW
  MELT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE CHEHALIS RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING BUT
FLOODING IS NOT IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE READY TO ACT
QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
JBB

$$

422 
WGUS66 KSEW 221133
FFASEW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
333 AM PST SUN JAN 22 2012

.HEAVY RAIN WHICH FELL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING COMBINED
WITH LOW ELEVATION SNOW-MELT RUNOFF COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON
SOME FLOOD PRONE RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TODAY TO ADD TO THE EXISTING RUNOFF.

WAC027-041-067-230000-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120123T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAYS HARBOR-LEWIS-THURSTON-
333 AM PST SUN JAN 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES... GRAYS HARBOR...LEWIS...THURSTON. 

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE MIDDLE TO LOWER CHEHALIS
  RIVER. THE CHEHALIS RIVER AT GRAND MOUND WILL CREST LATE THIS
  MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CREST COULD BE NEAR
  FLOOD STAGE. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY THE
  CHEHALIS RIVER AT PORTER COULD RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
  THIS EVENING.

* RAIN WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL
  AND SNOW MELT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE
  CHEHALIS RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING BUT
FLOODING IS NOT IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE READY TO ACT
QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE GS

$$

983 
WGUS66 KSEW 222236
FFASEW

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
236 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2012

WAC027-041-067-222345-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120123T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAYS HARBOR-LEWIS-THURSTON-
236 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT DROVE RIVERS HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...BUT RIVERS CRESTED JUST BELOW BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THE CHEHALIS RIVER AT PORTER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AROUND MIDDAY
MONDAY...BUT ABOUT A HALF-FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

$$

ALBRECHT
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1000 AM PST THU JAN 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON WILL BRING A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FROM EVERETT SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH SEATTLE
SOUTHWARD TO OLYMPIA. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT...WITH THE
WINTERY MIX CONTINUING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. A STRONGER...
WET...AND WARMER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVE WARMER AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SPREAD OVER W WA THIS
MORNING FROM ABOUT ARLINGTON SOUTHWARD...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS OREGON. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING
COLD AIR OUT OF THE FRASER VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W WA
INTERIOR...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. THERE IS A
WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL SUB-FREEZING AIR OVER THE W WA INTERIOR...DEEPEST
UP NORTH AND BECOMING SHALLOW OVER THE SW INTERIOR...WITH A LAYER OF
ABOVE FREEZING AIR JUST ABOVE. THIS IS CAUSING A RANGE OF PRECIP
TYPES FROM N TO S...FROM LIGHT SNOW OVER EVERETT...TO SLEET OVER
NORTH SEATTLE WHERE THERE IS WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP COLD AIR
BELOW...TO FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT SOUTH SEATTLE DOWN TO S OF
OLYMPIA...TO JUST RAIN OVER CHEHALIS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM
IS FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ICE STORM WARNING WILL
BE EXTENDED UNTIL 2 PM...BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WA COAST AT 17Z...AND ROUGH EXTRAPOLATION TAKES IT ACROSS PUGET
SOUND AROUND 21Z...FITTING WELL WITH THE MODELS TAPERING PRECIP
AFTER THAT. THE SOUTH PART OF THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS MAY
STILL BE UNDER THE GUN A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT.

THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. WITH THE COLD
AIR WEDGE REMAINING INTACT...THE WINTERY MIX WILL CONTINUE...BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THE SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN BOUNDARIES
END UP IS STILL IN QUESTION. AT LEAST THE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS.

A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OUT AROUND 150W. RESIDUAL
COLD AIR FRIDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THE WINTERY MIX
FARTHER NORTH OVER THE AREA...WITH RAIN OVER PUGET SOUND SOUTHWARD.
SHOULD BE RAIN EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWLAND SNOW MELT
WILL BE A PROBLEM IN THE MORNING...BUT RAIN RATES SHOULD PICK UP BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
PROBLEMS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED A LOT OF SNOW. RAIN
WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES
BY.  THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE
CONVERTED TO A WARNING AT SOME POINT. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE
AGREEMENT SHOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SNOW MELTS AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THAT COMBINED WITH LOWLAND SNOW MELT...SOME
RIVER FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN LOW ELEVATION RIVER BASINS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE SERIES OF WARMER AND WET WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF FLOODING AS EACH SYSTEM ADDS MORE RAIN TO THE RIVERS. COMPUTER
MODELS SHOW A PARTICULARLY MOIST AND STRONG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
ISSUED WITH MORE SPECIFICS. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...

A VERY SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON AFFECTING MANY TERMINALS ACROSS WRN WA.

COLD N/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TODAY. A 995 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR N OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING THE
MOISTURE FOR WRN WA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT AND WLY.

THE KPAE TERMINAL NWD SHOULD SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. SOUTH OF KPAE TO JUST NORTH OF KBFI THERE
IS AN AREA OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM KBFI/KSEA SWD TO KOLM
AND KHQM...EXPECT ALL FREEZING RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST NOON WITH WITH
ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...AND PERHAPS NEAR A HALF
INCH AT THE KOLM/KHQM TERMINALS. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
ABOVE 32 INTO THE AFTERNOON SO TIMING OF THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

KSEA...N WIND 3-7 KT...SWITCHING TO SE WIND AFTER 03Z. WILL MAKE
CHANGES TO THE 18Z TAF. ALSO...RAIN FALLING INTO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE ICE ACCUMULATION OF AT THIRD
OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NOON. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE
TERMINAL COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING BEYOND NOON...POSSIBLY NOT
GOING ABOVE 32 UNTIL 2-3 PM. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO FOR EITHER -RA OR
-FZRA...THEN STRICTLY -RA AFTER 2 PM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS
CLOSELY. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A 995 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE N OREGON COASTAL
WATERS WILL REACH ASTORIA AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH OVER B.C. WILL KEEP STRONG NE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT NE/E WINDS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED MOST WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND TODAY. DTM

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWITCH THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROBABLY BRING A SOLID ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO AT
LEAST THE COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...AND NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS. A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES HAS BEEN POSTED WITH THE
EARLY MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR JUST BELOW
GALES AT ADMIRALTY INLET AND PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL ZONES...BUT
GALES COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR THERE TOO. IN ADDITION THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A SURGE OF GALE WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT AND
EAST ENTRANCE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GALES.

IN ADDITION...A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH SWELLS OF 20 TO 25 FT LIKELY. DTM/MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...ICE STORM WARNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM PUGET SOUND
      SOUTHWARD.
    .WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST/CENTRAL/EASTERN
     STRAIT...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS...
       ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR
       CONDITIONS.

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1037 AM PST THU JAN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     FREEZING RAIN    1 WNW FEDERAL WAY       47.32N 122.36W
01/19/2012  M0.50 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/2 INCH OF ICE OF ACCRETION ON TOP OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
            BRANCHES STARTING TO SNAP.

0920 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 S MILL CREEK          47.83N 122.21W
01/19/2012  M0.20 INCH       SNOHOMISH          WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.20 INCHES OF ICE ACCRETION OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

1021 AM     SNOW             5 WNW STANWOOD          48.26N 122.45W
01/19/2012  M2.0 INCH        ISLAND             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER LAST 2 HOURS.

&&

DDAMICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1108 AM PST THU JAN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 SSE GALVIN            46.71N 123.00W
01/19/2012  M0.25 INCH       LEWIS              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.25 INCHES OF ICE ACCRETION ON TOP OF PREVIOUS 17.2
            INCHES RECEIVED FROM RECENT STORMS. BRANCHES SNAPPING.
            CURRENT TEMPERATURE 33 DEGREES.

&&

DDAMICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1150 AM PST THU JAN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     FREEZING RAIN    4 NNW EATONVILLE        46.93N 122.30W
01/19/2012  M0.25 INCH       PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.25 INCH ACCUMULATION OF ICE. STILL FREEZING RAIN.

1054 AM     FREEZING RAIN    5 N FORT LEWIS          47.17N 122.60W
01/19/2012  M0.25 INCH       PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1148 AM     FREEZING RAIN    EATONVILLE              46.87N 122.27W
01/19/2012  U0.00 INCH       PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES BEGINNING TO FALL UNDER THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE

&&

CERNIGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1200 PM PST THU JAN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 AM     SLEET            4 NNW EATONVILLE        46.93N 122.30W
01/19/2012  E0.00 INCH       PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FREEZING RAIN CHANGE TO SLEET WITH SOME SNOW. NORTH WIND

1157 AM     SNOW             2 N MONROE              47.88N 121.98W
01/19/2012  M2.0 INCH        SNOHOMISH          WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCHES SINCE 7 AM. NOW CHANGED TO SLEET AND FREEZING
            RAIN.

&&

CERNIGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
140 PM PST THU JAN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FREEZING RAIN    4 W FEDERAL WAY         47.31N 122.42W
01/19/2012  M0.50 INCH       PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION. LARGE FALLEN TREE LIMBS
            BLOCKING LOCAL ROADS.

0100 PM     FREEZING RAIN    3 NW LAKE CITY          47.17N 122.60W
01/19/2012  M0.50 INCH       PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION. BRANCHES UP TO 10 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER ARE CRACKING AND FALLING UNDER THE WEIGHT OF ICE
            AND SNOW.

&&

DDAMICO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
158 PM PST THU JAN 19 2012

WAZ516-210000-
NORTH COAST-
158 PM PST THU JAN 19 2012

...COASTAL FLOODING IN LA PUSH POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...

WESTERLY SWELL OF 20 FEET OR SO COULD REACH THE COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE PREDICTED HIGH TIDE NEAR NOON SUNDAY AT LA
PUSH IS 9.5 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS COULD COMBINE TO CAUSE DAMAGE
AT THE BERM FORTIFICATION AT THE MOUTH OF THE QUILLAYUTE RIVER.
THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS HAS BEEN WORKING TO REPAIR THIS BERM BUT IT
IS STILL SUSCEPTIBLE TO BIG SWELLS COINCIDENT WITH HIGH TIDES.

THE FORECAST CONDITIONS ARE STILL ABOUT THREE DAYS AWAY. THE
WEATHER MODELS THAT PREDICT HEAVY SWELL COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THAT TIME. THIS OUTLOOK IS MEANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR COASTAL FLOODING AT LA PUSH.

BURKE