Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
806 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA
MAY TRIGGER A BRIEF SHOWER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING TO RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. DECREASED POPS IN THE WEST AND TAPER
POPS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED. WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS LATER TONIGHT.

AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

KEEPING AN EYE ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA...WHICH ARE JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR OWN WESTERN
COUNTIES. BELIEVE THAT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK
UP SOMEWHAT AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA AS THEY BEGIN TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS
APPEAR TO BE STRONGER IN FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE LINE WILL REFIRE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THEY
OCCUR...ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR ACROSS OUR AREA IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW
ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO BECOME STRONG...AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. WITH RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER HOLDING ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

LOOKING INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HOLDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FORECAST TO
REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE
LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AS THE GREAT LAKES GYRE MOVES EAST AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP...THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THAT SURVIVE INTO SE WEST
VA ON SATURDAY. LIKELY THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ERODE ANY
SPRINKLES AND MOST CLOUDS AS THEY TRY TO ENTER THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
WITH THIS SETUP...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
OUTSIDE OF SE WEST VA. DECENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SET UP A CHILLY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT QUESTIONABLE IF THE DEEPER MTN
VALLEYS IN SE WEST VA WILL REACH FREEZING WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WINDS
HANGING AROUND. WARMUP BEGINS IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A HUGE REX BLOCK IS EXPECTED WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND A STRONG UPPER LOW JUST OFF VANCOVER ISLAND. THE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL FORCE AN UNBELIEVABLE STRING OF
PERFECT FALL WEATHER OUR WAY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH LEAVES ON THE
GROUND THIS MAY ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS. QUITE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK THAT THE WARMER CITIES AND URBAN LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCE FOUR DAYS OR MORE OF HIGHS 75F+...WITH A CHANCE AT 80F
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT. EVEN MANY OF THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL CROSS 70F. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...RESEMBLING A PATTERN IN MID JULY
INSTEAD OF MID OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND INT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTION
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/KK/NF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
339 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-191945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
339 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

GUSTY SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DEEPEST MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS ALSO MONDAY MORNING. FROST WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY COMMUNITIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-191945-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
339 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS
THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

VAZ034-045-190000-
CAMPBELL VA-BEDFORD VA-
718 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 713 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN BEDFORD COUNTY...ONE NEAR MONETA...AND
  ANOTHER JUST NORTH OF HUDDLESTON...BOTH MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYNCHBURG CITY...                FOREST...
  BEDFORD CITY...                  MONETA...
  BIG ISLAND...                    TIMBERLAKE...
  COLEMAN FALLS...                 GOODE...
  BOONSBORO...                     GOODVIEW...
  CHAMBLISSBURG...                 SEDALIA...

LAT...LON 3709 7963 3716 7968 3715 7970 3719 7972
      3719 7975 3722 7978 3756 7937 3752 7934
      3750 7929 3751 7923 3740 7912 3740 7910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 228DEG 30KT 3720 7965

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
730 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             2 NE TAZEWELL           37.13N 81.49W
10/18/2012  E0.75 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES

&&

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

VAZ047-190000-
BUCKINGHAM VA-
744 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 741 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CENTENARY...OR 9 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF FORK UNION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CENTENARY...                     NEW CANTON...

LAT...LON 3761 7831 3769 7853 3778 7848 3776 7847
      3773 7840 3773 7837 3772 7835 3771 7830
      3769 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 204DEG 42KT 3770 7842

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

VAZ034-035-045-190045-
CAMPBELL VA-AMHERST VA-BEDFORD VA-
754 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  AMHERST COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 749 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEDFORD CITY...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
  THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYNCHBURG CITY...                FOREST...
  BEDFORD CITY...                  HUDDLESTON...
  AMHERST...                       FORKS OF BUFFALO...
  CLIFFORD...                      BIG ISLAND...
  ELON...                          MADISON HEIGHTS...
  LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...             TIMBERLAKE...
  COLEMAN FALLS...                 NAOLA...
  GOODE...                         BOONSBORO...
  PLEASANT VIEW...                 FALCONERVILLE...
  NEW GLASGOW...                   LOWESVILLE...

LAT...LON 3779 7911 3778 7907 3773 7907 3771 7906
      3770 7901 3770 7899 3765 7895 3755 7890
      3707 7952 3734 7957 3780 7913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 230DEG 19KT 3733 7950

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
828 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

VAZ020-190115-
BATH VA-
828 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BATH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 824 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
  INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WARM SPRINGS...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WARM SPRINGS...                  YOST...
  WILLIAMSVILLE...

LAT...LON 3818 7952 3815 7953 3817 7949 3816 7944
      3810 7949 3808 7948 3803 7952 3795 7978
      3795 7978 3807 7983 3810 7982 3820 7961
      3820 7957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 240DEG 43KT 3804 7972

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
906 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

VAZ032-190145-
PATRICK VA-
906 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PATRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 903 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHARITY...OR 3 MILES EAST OF
  WOOLWINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
  THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WOOLWINE...                      BUFFALO RIDGE...
  CHARITY...

LAT...LON 3675 8032 3687 8022 3685 8007 3684 8007
      3683 8008 3683 8007 3682 8007 3669 8022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 218DEG 44KT 3679 8022

RAB