Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA
MAY TRIGGER A BRIEF SHOWER DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

KEEPING AN EYE ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA...WHICH ARE JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR OWN WESTERN
COUNTIES. BELIEVE THAT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK
UP SOMEWHAT AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA AS THEY BEGIN TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS
APPEAR TO BE STRONGER IN FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE LINE WILL REFIRE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THEY
OCCUR...ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR ACROSS OUR AREA IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW
ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO BECOME STRONG...AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND. WITH RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER HOLDING ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

LOOKING INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HOLDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FORECAST TO
REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MILD...RANGING FROM THE
LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AS THE GREAT LAKES GYRE MOVES EAST AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP...THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THAT SURVIVE INTO SE WEST
VA ON SATURDAY. LIKELY THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ERODE ANY
SPRINKLES AND MOST CLOUDS AS THEY TRY TO ENTER THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
WITH THIS SETUP...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
OUTSIDE OF SE WEST VA. DECENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SET UP A CHILLY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT QUESTIONABLE IF THE DEEPER MTN
VALLEYS IN SE WEST VA WILL REACH FREEZING WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WINDS
HANGING AROUND. WARMUP BEGINS IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A HUGE REX BLOCK IS EXPECTED WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND A STRONG UPPER LOW JUST OFF VANCOVER ISLAND. THE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL FORCE AN UNBELIEVABLE STRING OF
PERFECT FALL WEATHER OUR WAY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH LEAVES ON THE
GROUND THIS MAY ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS. QUITE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK THAT THE WARMER CITIES AND URBAN LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCE FOUR DAYS OR MORE OF HIGHS 75F+...WITH A CHANCE AT 80F
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT. EVEN MANY OF THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL CROSS 70F. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...RESEMBLING A PATTERN IN MID JULY
INSTEAD OF MID OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONTINUING TO TRACK A COLD FRONT AS IT MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. CLOSER TO HOME...A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST HAS RESULTED IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25KTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT NEARS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

IN AND OUT MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING EARLY THIS EVENING...AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE CONTINUES FLOWING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT PASSES. BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH...AFFECTING LWB...LYH AND
PERHAPS ROA. DYNAMICS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BLF...BCB AND DAN EITHER. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS GUSTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
EVENING...WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/NF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
339 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-191945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
339 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

GUSTY SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DEEPEST MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS ALSO MONDAY MORNING. FROST WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY COMMUNITIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-191945-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
339 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS
THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

VAZ034-045-190000-
CAMPBELL VA-BEDFORD VA-
718 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 713 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN BEDFORD COUNTY...ONE NEAR MONETA...AND
  ANOTHER JUST NORTH OF HUDDLESTON...BOTH MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYNCHBURG CITY...                FOREST...
  BEDFORD CITY...                  MONETA...
  BIG ISLAND...                    TIMBERLAKE...
  COLEMAN FALLS...                 GOODE...
  BOONSBORO...                     GOODVIEW...
  CHAMBLISSBURG...                 SEDALIA...

LAT...LON 3709 7963 3716 7968 3715 7970 3719 7972
      3719 7975 3722 7978 3756 7937 3752 7934
      3750 7929 3751 7923 3740 7912 3740 7910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 228DEG 30KT 3720 7965

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
730 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             2 NE TAZEWELL           37.13N 81.49W
10/18/2012  E0.75 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES

&&

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

VAZ047-190000-
BUCKINGHAM VA-
744 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 741 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CENTENARY...OR 9 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF FORK UNION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CENTENARY...                     NEW CANTON...

LAT...LON 3761 7831 3769 7853 3778 7848 3776 7847
      3773 7840 3773 7837 3772 7835 3771 7830
      3769 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 204DEG 42KT 3770 7842

RAB