Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
323 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY AND REMOVE THE TROPICAL AIR MASS FROM THE REGION.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WITH A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUCKLING BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
HIGHER PWATS ARE STILL OVER THE EAST AND HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR A FEW HOURS OUT EAST...WHILE STORMS ARE
STRUGGLING TO FORM IN THE WEST AS LOWER CLOUDS TOOK LONGER TO BURN
OFF.

WILL SEE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES FROM THE
NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY NEAR AND AT THE SFC WILL
CREATE FOG OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE POTENTIAL
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OR AT LEAST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN THE
MORNING. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL STAY MUGGY WITH 60S CWA WIDE.

THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY AND HOT
DAY...ALTHOUGH THINK THE MOS MAY BE TOO WARM OUT EAST GIVEN LACK OF
GOOD DOWNSLOPING LOW LVL WINDS...AND HUMIDITY STAYING ELEVATED. WENT
A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IN SOME AREAS...WITH AROUND 90 EAST AND 80S
WEST.

THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WEAK FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD FIRE THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOOKING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE THANKS TO WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.
HOWEVER...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY...AND BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN SPEED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BY SUNRISE
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MID OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE LATE SATURDAY MORNING...AND PUSH RAPIDLY TO THE EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE PIEDMONTS...
EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE...AS WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE BECOME STRONGER.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH A 4 TO 5 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY EVENING...MAY SEE GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND SPEEDS SETTLE DOWN.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SHARPLY AS THE FRONT PASSES...
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGER INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED
NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FOR
SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED...AS WELL AS NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS HOLD IN THE 70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY
HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY MORNING TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN ON
TUESDAY...WHERE IT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. AND WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WE CAN
EXPECT OUR FIRST TASTE OF AUTUMN TEMPERATURES...WITH MONDAY HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CONVECTION LINED UP OVER SOUTHSIDE VA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KDAN TO KEEP VCTS IN FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS AREA
WEST INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS WILL BE THE PRIME REGION FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH. WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE AT BEST...WILL KEEP IT
OUT OF THE TAFS EXCEPT WILL HAVE VCSH AT LYH/ROA. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT AND/OR WEAKEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST REGION.

OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES SUCH THAT LOW
LVL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINE TO INCREASE FOG CHANCES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED OR WILL RECEIVE RAIN
IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL WILL SEE FOG. THEREFORE...SINCE
DANVILLE JUST HAD A STORM PUSH THRU FILL THAT LIFR OR WORSE CAN BE
EXPECTED HERE LATER TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. FOR LWB/BCB CONFIDENCE ALSO
HIGH THAT DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR BLF
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS.
FOR ROA/LYH CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT LEAST FOR MVFR FOG...BUT
COULD SEE IFR BEFORE DAWN.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BETWEEN 12-14Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED
THRU 18Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MAY
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS.

INCREASING CLOUDS/VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SO FOG AT THE MOMENT
NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN. A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO REGION SATURDAY...CLEARING OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SUB VFR WX WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS.

DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT BLF/LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/WP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
135 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

VAZ058-061830-
HALIFAX VA-
135 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HALIFAX COUNTY...

AT 128 PM EDT...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALIFAX COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL
ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3665 7870 3658 7871 3656 7873 3654 7872
      3654 7873 3654 7914 3654 7922 3662 7920
      3670 7917 3668 7869

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
250 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

VAZ032-033-043-061915-
FRANKLIN VA-HENRY VA-PATRICK VA-
250 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...HENRY AND PATRICK
COUNTIES...

AT 242 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FERRUM...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BASSETT AROUND 305 PM AND SYDNORSVILLE AROUND
315 PM.

LAT...LON 3701 7963 3674 7999 3679 8024 3707 7996

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
319 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

VAZ032-033-043-062000-
FRANKLIN VA-HENRY VA-PATRICK VA-
319 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...HENRY AND PATRICK
COUNTIES...

AT 319 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM
SYDNORSVILLE TO BASSETT TO 4 MILES WEST OF BASSETT...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SYDNORSVILLE...AND STANLEYTOWN AROUND 325
PM...SANVILLE AROUND 330 PM...FIGSBORO...AND COLLINSVILLE AROUND 335
PM...FIELDALE AROUND 340 PM...VILLA HEIGHTS AROUND 345 PM AND
MARTINSVILLE CITY AROUND 350 PM.

LAT...LON 3681 7973 3663 7981 3665 8005 3679 8018
      3684 7999 3692 7986

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