Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
356 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR REGION ON BOTH DAYS. BY MID WEEK THE FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HRRR AND
WRFARW-RNK LOOKED REASONABLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS.

CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE ISC GRIDS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LEANED TOWARDS THE ADJMETBC FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
OUR REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

RESIDENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN MID WEEK WITH RETURN
OF CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED
POP-UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT POPS
PRETTY LOW...20 PERCENT OR LESS...AND FAVORING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. AS THE AIRMASS WARMS AND DRIES...SHOULD SEE A GREATER
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...

WITH FLOW DEAMPLIFIED...NO BIG EXTREMES ANTICIPATED IN THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD COVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH LAZY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE BURIED WITHIN THE
FLOW...BUT CAN'T ADD ANY GREAT DETAIL TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE TOO FAR FROM
CLIMO.

AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE WEEK OF AUG 26-31...THE TROPICS WILL
PROBABLY BECOME MORE OF INTEREST. HPC HAS ADDED A TROPIC LOW VCNTY
OF FLORIDA BY DAY 7 PER COORDINATION WITH THE HURRICANE
CENTER...REPRESENTING POSSIBLE TRACK OF AL94.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
SHALLOW INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BECAUSE
OF THIS WILL NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. LWB
AND ROA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...BUT ISOLATED STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

WINDS BASICALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TEND TO HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
EAST A LITTLE TRICKIER...WITH POSSIBLE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
INITIALLY...THEN MAYBE WEST LATE. STILL 5KT OR LESS.

WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AGAIN TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT LWB
ESPECIALLY...BCB AND BLF MORE LIKELY MVFR OR ONLY VERY BRIEF IFR.
VFR MOST LIKELY EAST...UNLESS HEAVIER SHOWERS IMPACT A PARTICULAR
AIRPORT AFT/EVE...THEN MVFR TO IFR FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING. INCLUDED BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT LYH FOR NOW. MUCH
DEPENDS ON DEGREE OF CLEARING...WHICH IS LESS LIKELY AT DAN.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. BY WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO
OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND VERY
LITTLE OR NOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
439 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-210845-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
439 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>