Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
404 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
DEPARTS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE TO
PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW FIRING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS STILL LOCATED
OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO DWINDLE DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. CLOUD COVER IS
STILL EXPANSIVE OVER THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISK CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT IF ANY OF THE STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS WERE BUMPED UPWARD IN THE
WEST SOME MORE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPILL OVER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW IT DOWN
BRIEFLY...SO CHANCE POPS WERE STILL KEPT ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN
FAVORED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...BUT SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
PROBABLY IMPEDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

BY SATURDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WERE KEPT IN THE PIEDMONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
50S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVERALL...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
WEST...AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY THREAT OF ADDITION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT
WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF...ARE HINTING AT A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING PROLONGED RAINFALL
EAST OF DANVILLE TO LYNCHBURG LINE. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN IS LOW...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. IN ANY
EVENT...AS THIS WAVE PASSES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DELMARVA...IT WILL
HELP SHIFT THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST...BRINGING AN END
TO RAINFALL BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY...WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES OUR DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE PARKED OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A
PATTERN OF TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH DISTINCT
STRONGER LOWS/TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH AN OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE...AND COINCIDENT
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HELP MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE AREA WILL TREND DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS THE FRONT TO REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE AREA...AND A OH/TN TROUGH RIDES ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
DO NOT DECREASE AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. OUR GRIDS WILL REFLECT THE
GUIDANCE OFFERED BY HPC WHICH ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOES NOT GO AS SIGNIFICANT AS
THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTIONS ALSO DOES MAINTAINS MILDER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO THE GFS MEX NUMBERS.

REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTIONS IS CORRECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONVERGE AGAIN ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT SIX HOURS FASTER WITH THE SOLUTION...BOTH STRONGLY
HAVE THE FEATURE. ANTICIPATE AS WE GET CLOSE TO NEXT
FRIDAY...REALITY WILL BE A FRONT SLOWER THAN THAN EITHER OF THESE
SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY OFFER. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH OUTPUT OFFERED
BY HPC FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED BACK UP TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS STILL PERSISTING IN BLF. BROKEN LINES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POPPING UP OVER
WEST VIRGINIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WERE KEPT
IN ALL THE TAFS. THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION HAS SLOWED DOWN
SEVERAL HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TIME RANGE BETWEEN
20Z AND 03Z NOW SEEMS MOST FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SUBSIDES TONIGHT...THE MOIST GROUND WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR FOG IN BLF AND BCB. LWB IS
MOST LIKELY TO DROP TO LIFR WHEN THE WINDS TURN CALM OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...TOO MUCH LOW CLOUD COVER WILL IMPEDE FURTHER FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST. BY SATURDAY MORNING...A DRIER AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND PROMPT A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD FLYING WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
323 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-111930-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
323 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...AS WELL AS POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WHERE STORMS BECOME SLOW
MOVING OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1145 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

WVZ042>045-101700-
GREENBRIER WV-MERCER WV-MONROE WV-SUMMERS WV-
1145 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT GREENBRIER...MERCER...MONROE AND SUMMERS
COUNTIES...

AT 1139 AM EDT...A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BECKLEY...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TO LAST 45 MINUTES OR
LONGER...AND MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH.

THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR CAMP CREEK STATE PARK AROUND 1150 AM...
PIPESTEM...AND LERONA AROUND 1205 PM...BLUESTONE STATE PARK AND AND
PIPESTEM AROUND 1210 PM...AND THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIR GROUNDS
IN LEWISBURG AROUND 1230 PM.

LAT...LON 3751 8036 3749 8127 3752 8122 3758 8119
      3761 8108 3764 8107 3772 8098 3770 8090
      3774 8093 3777 8090 3783 8093 3788 8076
      3794 8081 3801 8079 3803 8083 3806 8082
      3807 8089 3810 8089 3809 8071 3823 8049

16

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