Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1029 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALOFT...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED
TEXAS...THIS RIDGE FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RESULT OF AN AGGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT FRIDAY...

KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALL NIGHT GIVEN
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS. SHOULD NOT
SEE ANY SVR WX...ALTHOUGH SOME SMALLER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS GIVEN WEAK FLOW. HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM
EARLIER TO WATCH FOR FLOODING WILL BE ERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY
NC...BUCKINGHAM COUNTY VA AND NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV...AND
EVEN FAR SW VA NEAR RICHLAND/SALTVILLE.

THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL BE A VARIABLE ONE WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SHOULD SEE FOG FORMATION BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. TEMPS STILL
MUGGY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST
SATURDAY. WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE AND OLD BOUNDARIES REMAINS ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING. THE COMBINATION
OF W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT INSTABILITY WEST APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
SETUP FOR MULTICELLULAR BANDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY ABLE TO SPILL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE. INCREASED
POPS AND EXTENDED CHANCES OUT EAST TO THE PIEDMONT. SHAPED TIMING
AND POPS CLOSE TO NAM. PLAYED HIGH CLOSER TO COOL MOS BECAUSE OF
CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
FORCING IS EXPECTED IN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE 12Z GFS
PRODUCES SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVES OVER TN/KY AND TRIES
TO CONTINUE SOME ACTIVITY MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST BUT FEEL
THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE TO LARGE DEGREE...WHEREAS NAM HAS NOTHING ACROSS
THE WEST BUT CONTINUES CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EAST WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT IN ASSOC WITH A VERY WEAK LEE TROUGH.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO
TRUST EITHER SOLUTION...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS NOTION OF
KEEPING CHANCES GOING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE WEST...BUT WILL DROP
POPS QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY
OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY.
SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A
BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL...WITH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
COMING OUT OF OF WV AHEAD OF FRONT. MAIN THREAT DURING THE DAY WOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE WEST. EXACT TIMING IS IN QUESTION...INCLUDING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORMS WELL OUT AHEAD OF FRONT DEVELOPING WITH
MAX HEATING AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...OR DOES IT WAIT UNTIL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ARRIVES WHICH WOULD BE MORE EVENING AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST. SEVERE CHANCES MUCH LESS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GIVEN TIMING OF FRONT...BUT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS WELL OUT
AHEAD...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE IN
THE DAY. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT AT LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE WEST...SO WENT
CLOSER TO COOLER MET GUIDANCE IN WEST...AND WARMER MAV IN EAST.

BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR LINGERING CONVECTION OR AT LEAST
SHOWERS MOST OF THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF
DEEPER CONVECTION MONDAY WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND
DEPENDENT ON ANY SMALL DEGREE OF SFC HEATING...BUT SEVERE CHANCES
SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO LACK OF GOOD HEATING MONDAY. MONDAY
MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE PRETTY MILD WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND EVEN
ONGOING SHOWERS...AND MAV NUMBERS LOOK GOOD THERE WITH LOW TO MID
70S FOR MINS IN PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WEST. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND BOUNDARY IN WEST...BUT
IN THE EAST WEVMAY NEED TO DROP TEMPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST IF IT
LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL NOT GIVE WAY TO ANY SUNSHINE AT
ALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
BOTH A STRONG RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE COUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING WEAK
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARYS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MOST DAYS.

MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN REGION ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE WASHING OUT ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THERE ARE SIGNS IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE OF A WEAK
WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO WHILE EXPECTING BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY...CAN ELIMINATE CHANCES FARTHER WEST
GIVEN THIS POSSIBLE WAVE. WITH FAIRLY GOOD CLOUD COVER LIKELY...THIS
COULD BE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR SOME AREAS. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE
LESS OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM...BUT WITH WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD...AND MORE SUNSHINE PROBABLE...COULD RESULT IN STEEPER
LAPSE RATES OVERALL...SO WORTH KEEPING CHC FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. PROBABLY BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...IF
LINGERING CONVERGENCE WITH OLD BOUNDARY IS STILL PRESENT. BY THURS
AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE TO RELY MORE ON DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MSTR...BUT WITH WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR
EVIDENT...FEEL ITS WORTH KEEPING LOW CHC POPS. ON FRIDAY THE
INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES...BUT BY THIS TIME THERE IS ENOUGH
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH SOME HOLDING THIS FRONT OFF
UNTIL SAT OR LATER...NOT TO PUT MUCH EMPHASIS ON MUCH OF A CHANGE
BETWEEN THURS AND FRIDAY. WITH GENERALLY MORE SUN BY MID TO LATE
WEEK ONCE THE FRONT FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK GOES BY AND
WEAKENS...EXPECTING A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH PIEDMONT HIGH TEMPS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WATCHING CONVECTION NEAR LYH/DAN AND BLF THIS EVENING BUT THINKING
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES SO NOT ALLOWING ANY THUNDER EXCEPT VCTS
AT BLF. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST VA AREA NUDGING EWD. THINK BLF WILL SEE
SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING WITH CIGS/VSBYS STAYING MAINLY VFR BUT
COULD SEE VSBYS SINK INTO MVFR WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MUGGY WITH SOME FOG FORMING
ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED. AN ISSUE COULD BE CLOUD COVER WHICH
COULD IMPEDE HOW LOW VSBYS GO. CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON BCB/LWB
DROPPING TO LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH DAN/LYH/ROA STAYING IFR/MVFR WHILE
BLF CLEARS OUT ENOUGH LATE TO DROP AROUND 1SM.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE SLOWLY SAT MORNING AND MODELS SHOWING THE
NEXT WAVE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE MTNS AROUND 15-18Z THEN EAST
IN THE AFTN. WILL KEEP VCTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT DAN WITH VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPCLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH
DAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. OUTSIDE OF THIS MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION...THE ONLY OTHER FLIGHT WEATHER HAZARDS WOULD BE
FROM OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY...CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY...WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
MID WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...KK/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
919 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-050130-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
919 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. STORMS THIS
WEEKEND WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR IN THE PIEDMONT...WILL BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
821 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

VAZ047-040045-
BUCKINGHAM VA-
821 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 812 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
BUCKINGHAM TO ANDERSONVILLE ACROSS WESTERN BUCKINGHAM
COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING EXCESSIVE AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR DILLWYN AROUND 845 PM.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3735 7856 3760 7865
      3776 7862 3776 7851 3779 7850 3780 7849
      3777 7847 3774 7842 3774 7836 3772 7835
      3769 7824 3764 7824

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
909 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

WVZ045-040200-
GREENBRIER WV-
909 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 903 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF
RICHWOOD TO TROUT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
THE GROUND IN THIS AREA IS SATURATED FROM RECENT AND REPEATED HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM.
DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3823 8035 3811 8035 3809 8032 3794 8045
      3797 8054 3819 8055 3826 8046

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
944 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W REIDSVILLE          36.35N 79.71W
08/03/2012                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A COUPLE OF LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1028 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

NCZ002-VAZ015-040300-
ALLEGHANY NC-GRAYSON VA-
1028 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALLEGHANY AND GRAYSON COUNTIES...

AT 1024 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF MOUTH OF WILSON TO 5 MILES EAST OF SPARTA...MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR PINEY CREEK AROUND 1035 PM...ENNICE AROUND
1040 PM...INDEPENDENCE AROUND 1055 PM AND ELK CREEK AROUND 1100 PM.

LAT...LON 3643 8108 3644 8109 3643 8111 3645 8127
      3648 8131 3648 8132 3652 8134 3675 8129
      3671 8096 3670 8096 3669 8095 3642 8104

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1029 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

VAZ016-017-040300-
CARROLL VA-FLOYD VA-
1029 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CARROLL AND FLOYD COUNTIES...

AT 1028 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WILLIS TO FANCY GAP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR DUGSPUR AROUND 1100 PM.

LAT...LON 3669 8056 3667 8076 3685 8069 3690 8043

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

WVZ045-040300-
GREENBRIER WV-
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 1028 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST
OF RENICK...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR DUO AROUND 1040 PM.

LAT...LON 3826 8041 3825 8040 3800 8042 3795 8057
      3814 8063 3826 8046

DS