Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
900 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT DISSIPATE OVER WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INCREASED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TO EXIT CWA. ALSO ALLOWED FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND MAIN GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NAM...GFS AND WRFARW-RNK SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AND WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY STILL SPARK ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP EARLY TONIGHT TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO ISC
GRIDS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AT 640 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. MORE ADJUSTMENT
AS NIGHT PROGRESSES.

AT 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLUMN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRIER...THUS LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN
YESTERDAY AND EVEN LESS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED
UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE FALLEN OVER RATHER QUICKLY. WARMER AND
MORE SOUPY REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS
MORE DEVELOPMENT THERE LATE PM EARLY EVENING IF SOME SORT OF
OUTFLOW ARRIVES FROM STORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SW VA AND NW NC THIS
EVENING...ATTM IT IS ALLOWING STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS E KY AND SW
WEST VA. SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NW NC AND THE NC PIEDMONT SO
DID EXTEND POPS A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT. GROUND MAY STILL
BE WET ENOUGH FROM LAST NIGHT'S HVY RAIN ACROSS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY TO GENERATE A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG RIGHT AROUND DAWN...OR
IF ANOTHER STORM HAPPENS TO MOVE OVER SIMILAR AREAS TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL ANOTHER 3-5F THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIL
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...ONLY EXPECTING AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE
SW SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY PM AT MOST. WITH
H85 TEMPS REACHING +20C TACK ON A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR MAX T IN
COMPARISON TO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR A RENEGADE EVENING TSRA SW TIER THURSDAY EVENING
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
HIGH 5H HEIGHTS WILL START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK IMPULSES ROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING PWATS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS. PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE BACK TO MORE OF A WEAK
TROFFINESS NATURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING
A BETTER SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO WEST BY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED
WITH HEATING AND MOISTURE MAY MAKE FOR MORE ORGANIZED TSRA COVERAGE
ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WEST WHERE HAVE UPPED POPS BUT KEPT BELOW LIKELYS
FOR NOW. OTRW PC AND HOT ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE LOW/MID
90S EAST AND UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALTHOUGH
STILL MUGGY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY KEEP
HIGHS A BIT LOWER OVER THE WEST BUT STILL 90ISH SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER TROFFINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LAST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY MOUNTAINS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
UPSTREAM SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN THE PRECEDING DEEPER SW TO
NE MOISTURE LOBE. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SE TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY
BEFORE EITHER STALLING NEARBY OR PERHAPS LIMPING THROUGH BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE 5H TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. THUS LIKE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW TO INTERACT
WITH HEATING/MOISTURE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONVECTIVE LINE MAY TAKE THE FRONT TO THE SE
MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SOME DRYING ESPCLY NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE KEEPING
SOME LOW POPS SOUTHEAST BOTH DAYS AND ISOLATED CHANCES WESTERN
RIDGES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW POP UP STORMS. OTRW
TEMPS RATHER CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY
80S EXCEPT AROUND 90 SE THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ONE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS HAVE EXITED THE ROANOKE VALLEY TO THE EAST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAS FALLEN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SOME IFR CIG/VIS MAY OCCUR AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY LATE
MORNING.

THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...SCATTERED IN NATURE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ISOLATED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DIURNAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY WITH MOSTLY AFTERNOON/EVENING MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION...THE ONLY OTHER FLIGHT WEATHER
HAZARDS WOULD BE FROM OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG. STORM'S MAY BE MORE
NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 2012 WAS THE WARMEST JULY SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN
ROANOKE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/KM
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/KM
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-022030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
422 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1052 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

VAZ013-020345-
PULASKI VA-
1052 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN PULASKI COUNTY...

AT 1048 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DUBLIN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR DUBLIN AROUND 1100 PM AND PARROTT AROUND 1145
PM.

LAT...LON 3720 8076 3725 8061 3723 8062 3718 8059
      3721 8053 3720 8051 3718 8057 3714 8053
      3715 8056 3713 8059 3709 8075 3716 8080

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1127 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

NCZ001-018-019-020430-
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-WILKES NC-
1127 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ASHE...WATAUGA...AND
WILKES COUNTIES...

AT 1122 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BOONE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LANSING AROUND 1140 PM...BOONE AROUND 1145
PM...SANDS AROUND 1150 PM...RUTHERWOOD AROUND 1205 AM...AHO AROUND
1215 AM AND FLEETWOOD AROUND 1220 AM.

LAT...LON 3658 8155 3658 8143 3643 8126 3640 8126
      3639 8124 3637 8125 3637 8123 3608 8145
      3609 8152 3611 8155 3612 8171 3619 8186

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1145 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

NCZ019-020445-
WILKES NC-
1145 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WILKES COUNTY...

AT 1139 PM EDT...CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WERE DEVELOPING
ACROSS WILKES COUNTY..NEAR DOCKERY...JUST WEST OF WILKESBORO...AND
NEAR MCGRADY. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST WILKES COUNTY FROM ASHE COUNTY.  ALL STORMS WERE MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ALL OF THESE
STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3608 8145 3611 8154 3615 8150 3620 8146
      3622 8147 3630 8141 3629 8137 3636 8137
      3637 8134 3636 8127 3639 8120 3632 8087
      3606 8088 3603 8106

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1205 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             JEFFERSON               36.42N 81.47W
08/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       ASHE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN JEFFERSON.

&&

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1224 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             JEFFERSON               36.42N 81.47W
08/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       ASHE               NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN JEFFERSON.

1220 AM     HAIL             WILKESBORO              36.14N 81.16W
08/02/2012  E0.75 INCH       WILKES             NC   PUBLIC

&&

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1242 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ003-019-020-020545-
SURRY NC-WILKES NC-YADKIN NC-
1242 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SURRY...WILKES AND YADKIN
COUNTIES...

AT 1240 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NORTH WILKESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WINDY GAP AROUND 100 AM...ROARING RIVER
AROUND 130 AM...CLINGMAN AROUND 140 AM AND RONDA AROUND 145 AM.

LAT...LON 3634 8098 3640 8065 3604 8065 3605 8099
      3603 8106

JH