Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
734 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING. RETURN SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE ISOLATED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SE AND ONLY WEAK SUPPORT IN PLACE
UNDER MODEST INSTABILITY ATTM. EXPECT THIS OVERALL TREND TO PREVAIL
INTO THE EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS BEING
DRIVEN BY OLD OUTFLOW AND WEAK SE FLOW INTO THE RIDGES. THUS WILL
KEEP THE GOING SHOTGUN TYPE PATTERN OF LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION UNTIL SUNSET. NEXT FAINT MID LEVEL WAVE
WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS FROM LIGHT SE TO SOUTH BY MORNING. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS RESULTS IN LINGERING BANDS OF
SHRA ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS DOUBTS ABOUT IT WHILE BOTH THE NAM/GFS HAVE SOME SHRA
IN SPOTS SO GIVEN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW/HIGH PWATS DECIDED TO LEAVE IN
A RIBBON OF CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS MAINLY CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT.
OTRW PC WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

NEXT MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE AROUND THE EASTERN 5H TROF
AND THRU THE TN VALLEY BY MORNING...CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT WHERE A COMPLEX OF
STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH BUT STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK UVV
RIGHT UNDER THE TROF AXIS TO PRODUCE A FEW BANDS OF TSRA. HOWEVER
COVERAGE IN QUESTION AND MAY BE BELOW LIKELYS BUT LEFT IN SINCE
ALREADY IN PLACE AS MAY LINE UP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WITH THE
FLOW MORE SW LATER IN THE DAY. ELSW KEPT IN DECENT CHANCE POPS
ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH A LITTLE MORE
OF A JET ALOFT IN PLACE. HIGHS RANGING FROM 78-85 MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S OUT EAST WITH MORE AFTERNOON SUN LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT MONDAY...

RH WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOULD LIMIT STORMS SOUTH OF RT 460 ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THOSE MAY ONLY BE SCATTERED AT BEST. THIS TREND
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT ALLOWING H85 TEMPS TO REACH
+20C. EVEN LESS CLOUDS AND A SMALLER CHC OF STORMS HAN EVEN
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ALLOW SOME SPOTS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S ONCE
AGAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SUCH
THAT THE AIR MASS WILL NOT FEEL TOO OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 23 PM EDT MONDAY...

WITH MORE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE
WEEKEND...DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SO WILL INSTABILITY AS
RH INCREASES AT H7 AND H5. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ON SUNDAY IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS MAY RISE A
FEW MORE DEGREES...MAX T WILL BE STUNTED BY MORE CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUCH THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER
90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...

MSAS ANALYSIS OF THETA-E HAVE HIGHEST VALUES AND BEST INSTABILITY
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. BETWEEN THESE
TWO REGIONS...RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR DAN AND
LWB. EXPECT AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNSET.

MODELS BRING IN MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT ROA/LYH/DAN AND BCB AFTER 10Z. LWB HAD RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON SO WITH THE MOIST GROUND CONFIDENCE IN LIFR FOG IS
HIGH FOR LATE TONIGHT.

LOW CIGS AND FOG SHOULD SLOWLY BURN AWAY TUESDAY MORNING BUT MAY
TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR A RETURN TO VFR IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER ANY HEATING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN BKN CU FIELDS
BY MIDDAY. WITH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...BRINGING AN EVEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF
ROANOKE AFTER 20Z/4PM.

THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION...THE ONLY OTHER FLIGHT WEATHER HAZARDS WOULD BE
FROM OVERNIGHT MVFR VALLEY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-311930-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
329 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BANDS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
719 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

VAZ058-310000-
HALIFAX VA-
719 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HALIFAX COUNTY...

AT 715 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF REDOAK...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SCOTTSBURG AROUND 730 PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LAT...LON 3668 7864 3669 7867 3667 7869 3671 7893
      3683 7888 3677 7869 3676 7868 3674 7869
      3672 7867 3671 7867 3670 7864

PH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

VAZ020-310015-
BATH VA-
744 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BATH COUNTY...

AT 741 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHEAST
OF WARM SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BURNSVILLE AROUND 805 PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LAT...LON 3822 7970 3820 7955 3818 7951 3816 7952
      3818 7948 3817 7947 3816 7947 3807 7957
      3821 7977 3825 7975

PH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
757 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

VAZ058-310045-
HALIFAX VA-
757 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HALIFAX COUNTY...

AT 754 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HALIFAX...
MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR RIDGEWAY AROUND 820 PM AND INGRAM AROUND 825
PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LAT...LON 3670 7887 3667 7919 3684 7915 3689 7913
      3680 7885

PH

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