Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD DIVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE LOCAL WRF...HAD THE RIGHT IDEA WITH BEST
INSTABILITIES OVER SW PORTION OF RNK CWA. THIS AREA SAW THE MOST
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. MODELS DID NOT DO TO WELL FOR
CONVECTION IN THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOUR GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH AREAS OF CONVECTION. ALSO...CONVECTION STARTED
OUT AS ISOLATED CELLS AND BECAME MULTI-CELLAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...THE
AIR OUTSIDE NWS RNK OFFICE FEELS MORE STABLE THAN UNSTABLE. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

MODELS ARE NOT TO IMPRESSED WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NORTH
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND SOUTH WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE. SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...WILL KEEP POPS AT A CHANCE. INTERESTING TO
NOTE...LOOKING AT THE NAM WIND GRIDS...IT DISPLAYS A SQUALL LINE
COMING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IN THE EAST
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE ONLY 25 MPH. SPC HAS
RNK IN A SEE TEXT...SO LETS SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT.

WITH THE LIMITED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BY MODEL
STANDARDS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RUN ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S WEST TO NEAR 90F IN THE
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...AND WHILE WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND EXPECT TO
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF
TUESDAY.

LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY AS A DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS OUR AREA. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 80 IN THE PIEDMONTS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT ALONG THE RIDGELINES...WHERE UPPER
40S ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL BEGIN TO SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EDGES ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS OUR
AREA...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORKWEEK. AS SUCH...HIGHS BY FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
ACROSS OUR AREA.

NOW...TO MAKE IT A LITTLE MORE FUN...LETS INTRODUCE THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...CURRENTLY FOUND IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES THE STORM INTO LOUISIANA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...STEERING CLEAR OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH NO
STRONG FEATURE IN PLACE TO DIRECT THE MOVEMENT OF DEBBY...IT IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE STORM TO MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. SHOULD THE DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM MOVE INTO OUR
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE AN
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...MAKING THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND PERHAPS SATURDAY TOO HIGH. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH TRACK THE
STORM TAKES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO KNOW FOR SURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 141 AM EDT SUNDAY...

DECENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON PRECEDED BY
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT DECENT INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A SCATTERING OF SHRA/TSRA GIVEN STRONG HEATING
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKING
MORE APT TO SEE A TSRA BETWEEN 19-22Z (3-6 PM)...AND AFTER 4-5 PM
ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. AT 1730Z/130P...A WEAK SHOWER PASSED NORTH
OF BLUEFIELD TO HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
STORM DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF KBCB AND SHOULD IMPACT KROA BETWEEN 18-
20Z/2P-4P. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE PREVAILING TSRA AT
ANY TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE VICINITY TSRA FOR ALL SITES WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY EVENING.

SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY FADE BY MIDNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY
VFR AFTER SUNSET BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TAKES SHAPE. JUST HOW
MUCH FOG DEVELOPS DEPENDENT ON EARLIER RAINFALL AS COULD SEE MORE
IFR BUT FOR NOW STAYING WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS UNDER SCTD-BKN MID
DECK OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR ESPCLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD VFR
FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH GOOD FLYING WEATHER TUESDAY-THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032-033-043>047-058-059-252000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
347 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>045-252000-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
347 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
518 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

VAZ014-017-242200-
FLOYD VA-MONTGOMERY VA-
518 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN FLOYD AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PILOT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHRISTIANSBURG...                PILOT...
COPPER HILL...                   SHAWSVILLE...
ELLISTON...                      ELLISTON-LAFAYETTE...
CHECK...                         TERRYS FORK...
CROCKETT SPRINGS...

LAT...LON 3697 8031 3712 8045 3728 8024 3723 8019
      3711 8018 3712 8013 3710 8011 3707 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 233DEG 17KT 3709 8036

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
538 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ020-242230-
YADKIN NC-
538 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WESTERN YADKIN COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 533 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BROOKS CROSSROADS...OR 8 MILES
WEST OF YADKINVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3613 8088 3627 8072 3627 8069 3620 8060
      3608 8080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 227DEG 8KT 3613 8081

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
607 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

VAZ022-033-242245-
FRANKLIN VA-ROANOKE VA-
607 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN
ROANOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BENT MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENT MOUNTAIN...                 BOONES MILL...
CAVE SPRING...                   POAGES MILL...

LAT...LON 3722 7984 3722 7981 3722 7980 3723 7978
      3721 7978 3719 7976 3719 7972 3715 7971
      3716 7968 3711 7965 3709 8011 3712 8013
      3711 8016 3721 8019 3725 7985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 268DEG 16KT 3715 8013

RAB