Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM THIS EVENING.
DISCREET SUPERCELL ARE ROTATING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE RNK
PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. REPORTS FROM THE AMHERST STORM
AROUND 200 PM HAD SILVER DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. MEANWHILE...BOWING LINE
OF CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERED SE WV/SW VA AROUND 300
PM. AS THESE LINES COME ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MAYBE SLOW TO EXIT THE EASTERN
HALF OF RNK CWA THIS EVENING. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE DEW POINT FRONT
SHOULD ALSO HANG UP ACROSS SOUTHSIDE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THIS WAVE
TRACKS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

COOLER DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
SATURATED GROUND COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DEW POINT FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...PLACING BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA IN DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK SHORT WAVES PINWHEELING AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING...COMBINING WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS FROM BLUEFIELD WV NORTH INTO GREENBRIER COUNTY WV...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

COOL ADVECTION UPSLOPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SOME COOL
POOL CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 70S
PREDOMINATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER INSOLATION AND MILDER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY...GENERALLY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL
LARGELY INFLUENCE EXTENT OF RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL...BUT
SUFFICIENT CLEARING UNDER SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO 50S ELSEWHERE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY MODERATING TO MAINLY 50S ALL AREAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

CONTINUED TO FAVOR SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF ECMWF MODEL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD IN HANDLING OF UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION BUILDING ON BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROF.
ALTHOUGH EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN MODELS ALL INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF
A RIDGE-RUNNING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) SCOOTING OVER THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST
ON/BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
NORTHEASTERN TROF WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE AND EXPANSIVE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCED
ASCENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BLACKSBURG AREA OF CONCERN. THIS
SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL. GFS MODEL...INDICATES
A WEAKER TROF BY THIS POINT...AND ALLOWS MCS...COMBINING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
BLACKSBURG AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS MODEL REMAINED THE
OUTLIER...AND THEREFORE ITS SOLUTION FOR A WETTER AND COOLER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WAS DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY REINFORCEMENT OF UPPER
TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION...MAINTAINING A
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES SCOOTING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF...AND SOME UPSLOPING FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW
THREAT OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROF SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HPC BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE USED TO POPULATE LONG RANGE GRIDDED FIELDS...WITH
ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS TO REFLECT TOPOGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL BIASES AS/WHERE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA
BY THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING INTO THUNDERSTORMS SHORTLY EARLY. CONSIDERING
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME SEVERE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE WITH A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PERHAPS SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION PASS. BY EARLY EVENING...THIS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SOLIDIFY INTO A LINE...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING INTO THE PIEDMONT REGION BY MID
EVENING...REMAINING STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY CONTINUE EAST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER LIGHT WEST/NW FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE RIDGES CREATING IFR/MVFR IN LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBYS ESPCLY
AT KBLF AND PERHAPS KLWB LATE TONIGHT. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT
KLYH WHERE INCLUDING A MVFR MENTION GIVEN WET GROUND AND LIGHTER
WINDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER NW FLOW COULD KEEP MVFR CIGS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LESS CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING
MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ON MONDAY WITH VFR RETURNING
AGAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-021730-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 332 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RCS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
445 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

NCZ002-003-019-VAZ015-016-032-012115-
ALLEGHANY NC-CARROLL VA-GRAYSON VA-PATRICK VA-SURRY NC-WILKES NC-
445 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A SHOWER WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT ALLEGHANY...CARROLL...
GRAYSON...PATRICK...SURRY AND WILKES COUNTIES...

AT 442 PM EDT...A SHOWER WITH HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TRAPHILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHOWER. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS SHOWER...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS SHOWER WILL BE NEAR ROARING GAP AROUND 450 PM...GLADE VALLEY
AROUND 455 PM...BARRETT AROUND 500 PM...CUMBERLAND KNOB AROUND 505
PM...LOW GAP AROUND 510 PM AND LAMBSBURG AROUND 515 PM.

LAT...LON 3683 8057 3662 8040 3631 8114 3644 8122

DS