Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE
BERYL MOVES NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND
THESE DEPARTING SYSTEMS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS WERE INCREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...SO UP TO CATEGORICAL MENTIONING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN PLACES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IF ANY OF
THE STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN.

LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IN THE PIEDMONT...SO IT WILL BE
A SLOW DECREASE IN POPS FOR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE PRESENCE OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT PROBLEMATIC TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE IT MAY
FORM. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE PRECIPITATION
CROSSING THE REGION.

BERYL SHOULD EXIT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL
MERGE WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF STREAM. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEMS. A
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE COOLER
GFS AND THE WARMER NAM. AT THIS POINT...THE NAM APPEARS TOO WARM
GIVEN THE SITUATION OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT
ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THE GFS. EVEN WITH FOLLOWING THIS COOLER
SOLUTION...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO HIGHS FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY. POPS WERE TAKEN
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON...AS DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CLOSES OFF OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS OFFSHORE AND THE GULF OPENS UP INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS MAY COME INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT....OTHERWISE MODELS BRINGS DRIER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AHEAD OF
THE LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEANING MORE TOWARD TO THE SLOWER GEFS AND SREF
WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

TRENDING TOWARD WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY
EXPECTING LOTS OF SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE BY MONDAY AS PATTERN FLATTENS
AND BECOMES ZONAL.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST WITH SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO TRACK
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO PLACE VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 20Z...WITH TEMPO
GROUPS INCLUDED FOR -TSRA AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT LYH AND
DAN...SO THE TAFS FOR THESE LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT A CONTINUATION OF THESE WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER
TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM GROUND
MOISTURE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME STRATUS ALOFT TO PREVENT A
COMPLETE COLLAPSE IN VISIBILITIES. NEVERTHELESS...IFR CONDITIONS
WILL MOST LIKELY DOMINATE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ONCE THE MORNING FOG
LIFTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST...AND IT WILL PROVIDE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
MINOR DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-300800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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