Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE
GULF COAST TONIGHT...AND WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SPOTTY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...MOVES
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT GUSTY WINDS
AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENDS.

OVERNIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
WARM AND MUGGY SIDE...AND DO NOT EXPECT LOWS TO FALL MUCH BELOW
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION...AND BELOW THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL START
OUT THE NIGHT ON THE PARTLY CLOUDY SIDE. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE...
WITH SHOWERS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNRISE.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...AGAIN WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND SCATTERED RAINFALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO
MODERATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOW 80S. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND THEN A BIT OF A COOL DOWN DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. ON SUNDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. LOW
PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH
THE MID WEST AND THEN EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES...THE STALLED FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THIS FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE CROPPED
UP IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED...ALTHOUGH CU IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
THERE AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THURSDAY THAT DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MENTIONED IN THE 03/18Z TAFS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM
OVER ONE OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SKIES VARYING BETWEEN SCT AND BKN WITH BASES BETWEEN 5KFT TO 7KFT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY...THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...BELIEVE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AT BLF...BUT THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
DURING LATE MORNING. WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PRESSING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...AND
USHERING IN A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL EXPECT SUB VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-041945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
340 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-041945-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
340 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA343
PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

VAZ010>013-032015-
GILES VA-BLAND VA-WYTHE VA-PULASKI VA-
343 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LONG SPUR...

A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WITH PEA
SIZED HAIL. ALSO A QUICK INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL IN 30 MINUTES.

LAT...LON 3725 8084 3708 8073 3703 8097 3721 8107

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

VAZ017-032045-
FLOYD VA-
414 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WILLIS...

A NEARLY STATIONARY STORM COULD PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH
WINDS. ALSO AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN MAY FALL IN 30 MINUTES.

LAT...LON 3675 8049 3689 8059 3695 8049 3683 8035

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
427 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W BRANDON             36.54N  81.52W
05/03/2012                   ASHE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON ANDERSON HILL ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1200105

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
433 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             1 N CONNERS GROVE       36.81N  80.42W
05/03/2012  E0.75 INCH       FLOYD              VA   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT 554 EMMANUEL ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1200106

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
435 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             1 NW ALLISON            36.94N  80.85W
05/03/2012  M1.00 INCH       WYTHE              VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1200107

16

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