Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
142 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A FETCH OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1208 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE REFLECTS LATEST TRENDS OF PRECIPITATION ON
RADAR WITH LIKELY POPS NOW MENTIONED IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ELSEWHERE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLIER FORECAST
TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS OF TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY
COVER.

AS OF 925 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING REFLECT PRIMARILY CAPTURING A BIT MORE
DETAIL IN THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECASTS ARE IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
HEADING EAST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. FIRST
SMALL CLUSTER WILL BE BETWEEN THE BLUEFIELD AND ROANOKE AREAS
BETWEEN NOW AND NOON. THE NEXT...AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA...SHOULD
ENTER THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON AND THEN MAKE PROGRESS
EASTWARD.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT...SKY COVER AND WINDS BASED UPON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...

ISSUES WITH DENSE FOG VCNTY OF ROANOKE AND LYNCHBURG ARE NO LONGER
A PROBLEM PER MIXING FROM PASSAGE OF MORNING SHOWERS. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW TODAY SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN QUICK
DEMISE OF RESIDUAL COOL WEDGE JUST EAST OF BLUE RIDGE...AND BY
AFTERNOON WILL BE AN AFTERTHOUGHT WITH AREAS CAUGHT BY THE COOL
AIR YESTERDAY GETTING A TASTE OF WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT CROSSED THE NRN CWA THIS MORNING
WEAKENED AS THEY PASSED EAST OF THE MTNS. THROUGH NOON EXPECT
A LULL IN ACTIVITY. CONCERN TODAY IS WHERE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF SHRA/TSRMS WILL TAKE PLACE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALIGNED FROM W-E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA VCNTY
OF THE VA/NC BORDER...AND FEEL THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE...ESP THE NAM...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE L60S FROM TN/NC TO POOL ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY WITH SB
CAPES OF 2500 PROGGED ACROSS THE SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...YEILDING
LIS OF M5 TO M7. MAIN SVR THREAT WOULD BE HAIL...BUT INCREASING
DCAPES PER COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNINGS MCS AND VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIND TOO. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE UPSTREAM DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE OH VALLEY. SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST RESULTING IN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...ANY MCS MOVING DOWNSTREAM...AND INTO OUR
CWA...FOLLOWING ALONG REMANT BOUNDARY. IF THIS OCCURRS...WINDS
BACKING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
0-3KM HELICITIES VCNTY OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THE ORDER OF
150-200 M/S. TIMING OF THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE WOULD BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO LINGER
OVER OUR LOCAL REGION THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO MID
SUMMER LEVELS. DIURNAL HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EACH
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS KEEP BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY THEN A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINS WELL NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WELL IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR UNTIL MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST OF A KLWB-KBCB-KLNP
LINE. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AND SURFACE GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS UNDER
THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS...BUT OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF A
KLYH-KTNB LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOW LYING AREAS TONIGHT THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION TODAY. COULD
SEE SOME LOCAL IFR/MVFR BR/FG. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE
HEADING ACROSS KY/OH LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR A KBLF-KLWB LINE AROUND AND AFTER 10Z...6AM
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED COVECTION
DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
PRIOR TO PROPAGATION EASTWARD.

SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT LOCAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE VFR.
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE FROM THE LCL IFR VCNTY OF THE TSTMS...AND
ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH LATE NIGHT RIVER AND VALLEY FOG IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THE DAY BEFORE.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-021930-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-021930-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
318 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             MOUNT AIRY              36.50N 80.61W
05/01/2012  E0.50 INCH       SURRY              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
336 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             6 SW FRANCISCO          36.44N 80.44W
05/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       STOKES             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON MCDANIEL ROAD JUST SOUTH OF
            WESTFIELD

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             4 ENE PILOT MOUNTAIN    36.40N 80.40W
05/01/2012  E0.75 INCH       STOKES             NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ON OSCAR FRYE ROAD

&&

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCZ019-020-012015-
WILKES NC-YADKIN NC-
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WILKES AND YADKIN COUNTIES...

AT 338 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
NORTH WILKESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WINDY GAP AROUND 350 PM...CLINGMAN AROUND 355
PM...SWANCREEK AROUND 410 PM AND BUCK SHOALS AROUND 415 PM.

LAT...LON 3609 8118 3626 8113 3621 8070 3605 8074
      3605 8099 3604 8100

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             3 NE PILOT MOUNTAIN     36.42N 80.43W
05/01/2012  E1.75 INCH       STOKES             NC   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MITCHELL
            ROAD AND WILSON ROAD

&&

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

VAZ007-012045-
TAZEWELL VA-
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TAZEWELL COUNTY...

AT 347 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF RICHLANDS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GLEN BURKE...AND RAVEN AROUND 355 PM...JEWELL
RIDGE...AND RICHLANDS AROUND 405 PM...CEDAR BLUFF AROUND 410 PM...
CLAYPOOL HILL AROUND 415 PM...BANDY AROUND 420 PM AND CLIFFIELD
AROUND 430 PM.

LAT...LON 3718 8187 3719 8179 3724 8174 3724 8171
      3721 8168 3721 8156 3723 8152 3726 8150
      3727 8144 3706 8140 3704 8143 3704 8183
      3710 8189 3715 8191