Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
753 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...AND
WILL USHER IN DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. THIS DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...PASSING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LAST REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXITING OUR EASTERN MOST COUNTIES. CONTINUE
TO SEE NEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WEST OF OUR
AREA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. BELIEVE THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENTER
OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER STILL WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...AND WILL EXIT OUR AREA
TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WHILE DEW POINTS WILL
DROP FROM THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE 40S AND 30S BEHIND
THE FRONT...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 50S SOUTH.

OUR AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ZONAL FLOW TO BRING FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BISECT THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FROM W-E...GETTING SHOVED SOUTHWARD PER PASSAGE OF
EACH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ONLY TO RETURN NORTHWARD
AGAIN AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WAVE.

THE ECMWF/GFS SEEMED TO BE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT...THE MODELS
CONVERGING ON WHAT APPEARS WILL BE A SHOWERY SORT OF WEEKEND.  IT
WILL NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS GENERATION AND
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST EVIDENT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION INTO THE MTNS. THIS RAISES
CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING IN OUR MTN COUNTIES...WRN CWA...WHERE
RECENT 2-3 INCH SORT OF RAINFALL HAS SATURATED THE GROUND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND WHETHER FRONT CAN GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE TO PUT US IN THE
WARM SECTOR.  FCST IS SKEWED TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN
CWA VS COOLER NUMBERS NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY

SURFACE FRONT TO BISECT REGION PER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...CENTER
NEAR GEORGIA.  THIS WILL KEEP FRONT PINNED ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH...WITH DAILY THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL PASS QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITHIN
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAINS IN QUESTION
YIELDING A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO SAY THERE WILL BE
A DAILY THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. THE RESULT IS THE USE OF A LARGE PAINT
BRUSH WITH RESPECT TO POPS.  TEMPS COULD EASILY BE PLUS/MINUS 10
DEGREES FROM CURRENT FCST PENDING WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT WE ARE ON
AT THE TIME. THE STRONGER THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE SOUTHEAST...THE
FARTHER NORTH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GET PUSHED...SO BY MID WEEK
THINK TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WIND AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID MORNING AT BLF AND LWB. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z/2PM AS CRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY.

EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
MORE RAINFALL AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND A LONGER
PERIOD OF BELOW VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/NF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-271945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
335 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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