Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Blacksburg, VA

971 
WWUS51 KRNK 290109
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
909 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

VAC031-037-083-143-290130-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-120329T0130Z/
PITTSYLVANIA VA-HALIFAX VA-CHARLOTTE VA-CAMPBELL VA-
909 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA...NORTHERN HALIFAX...CHARLOTTE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAMPBELL COUNTIES...

AT 905 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAT CREEK...OR NEAR
BROOKNEAL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ASPEN...
  PHENIX...
  CULLEN...
  CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...
  DRAKES BRANCH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 3697 7846 3687 7851 3670 7864 3694 7922
      3720 7893 3713 7850 3711 7850 3709 7848
      3708 7844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 287DEG 39KT 3705 7884

$$

SK

265 
WWUS51 KRNK 290120
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
920 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

VAC031-037-083-143-290130-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-120329T0130Z/
PITTSYLVANIA VA-HALIFAX VA-CHARLOTTE VA-CAMPBELL VA-
920 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN HALIFAX...CHARLOTTE AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMPBELL COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. 
THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1 8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3697 7846 3687 7851 3670 7864 3694 7922
      3720 7893 3713 7850 3711 7850 3709 7848
      3708 7844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 287DEG 39KT 3702 7871

$$

SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
653 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY...CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #112 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9:00 PM...FOR OUR
SE WV COUNTIES...THE HIGHLANDS OF VA INCLUDING ROCKBRIDGE.  SEE
LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG APPROACHING FRONT. AREA OF INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE FROM ERN KY ACROSS WV AND INTO NRN VA.

FAST MOVING SFC FRONT IS MOVING ESE ACROSS PA/WV/KY. THIS FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST CROSSING OUR FCST AREA THIS
EVENING...AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF FRONT IS RESULTING IN GRADIENT WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA HIGHER MOMENTUM MIX DOWN COULD REALIZE GUSTS OF
50-60 MPH.

MAIN WEATHER HAZARD THIS EVENING WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS SUGGEST SOLID BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION TO CROSS THE MTNS BETWEEN 5-8PM...THEN BREAK UP AS
THE STORMS ENCOUNTER THE DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND...ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET. FOR NOW WILL PAINT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NRN AND
WESTERN CWA...AND CHC POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA BY MORNING
WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS OVERTAKING THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. LOOKING AT A SUNNY DAY THURSDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MOS NUMBERS FOR BOTH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD KEEP US MIXED TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
OR NO CHANCE FOR DECOUPLING. FULL SUN ON THURSDAY SHOULD NEGATE
THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS NW NC AND EXTREME
SW VA ON FRIDAY. STILL SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF BREAKING OUT PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 18Z/2PM FRIDAY IN
SE WEST VA...WITH THE NAM/GFS SLOWER. THEN ON SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND HOLDS QPF IN THE REGION MUCH LONGER INTO SATURDAY
THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE KEEPING SLT
CHC POPS IN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS DAY COULD END UP
MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS THOUGHT EARLIER THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY IS ALSO MUCH WARMER OFF THE NAM/GFS THAN THE ECMWF SO AGAIN
FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLOWER OFF THE ECMWF
THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEK...AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS WEAKER FROM THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THIS
PATTERN SCREAMS FOR A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS NEXT WEEK. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONT
WOULD CROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS STRONG SHWS AND
STORMS. MONDAY COULD EASILY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG TO
THE SE WHILE WEAKENING. DESPITE LACK OF DEEP UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THIS BAND AND ANY ORGANIZED EMBEDDED
CELL COULD EASILY RESULT IN ADDED WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 KTS AS
MOMENTUM MIX DOWN OCCURS. HOWEVER GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WILL BACK
OFF ON WINDS A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAINLY
INCLUDE A VCTS/VCSH OR TEMPO FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF CONVECTION AT
MOST SITES EXCLUDING KDAN...AND PERHAPS KLWB WHERE SHRA IS
ALREADY ONGOING.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WNW FOLLOWING TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING AND DECREASE...BUT REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
NIGHTTIME HOURS...STILL 7-10KTS WITH GUSTS 16-18KTS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE RIDGES THE
ENTIRE NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. IN GENERAL EXPECT MOST
SHRA WILL BE OUT OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LOW STRATO-CU LINGERING BEHIND FRONT WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR FULL
SUNSHINE THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE...BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING PERIOD OF VFR CLOUD
COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH LOWERING CLOUD BASES AND THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS SUNDAY AND LASTS UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN
ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANTICIPATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEW POINT VALUES TO TREND DRIER
THAN GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/PM
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
218 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-291830-
ASHE-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-GRAYSON-
218 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ042-043-045-291830-
MERCER-SUMMERS-GREENBRIER-
218 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED.

NCZ002-VAZ011-013-014-016>018-291830-
ALLEGHANY NC-GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
218 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ019-020-WVZ044-291830-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MONROE-
218 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED.

NCZ003-019-VAZ022-023-032>034-291830-
SURRY-WILKES-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
218 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ024-291830-
ROCKBRIDGE-
218 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ035-043>047-058-059-291830-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
218 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE
EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
439 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

VAZ019-020-024-WVZ042>045-282245-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...
HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
439 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

..STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...

AT 4:30PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOWED A BROKEN
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA AT 40 TO 50 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THESE STORMS WILL REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY BY AROUND 5:30 PM...AND LOCATIONS FROM BLUEFIELD...TO WHITE
SULPHUR SPRINGS...TO HOT SPRINGS BY 6 OR 6:30PM. THE LINE MAY
CONTINUE EASTWARD AFTER THIS TIME.

SK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
837 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

VAZ044-045-058-290100-
CAMPBELL VA-HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
837 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL...HALIFAX AND
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

AT 835 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
EVINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HODGES AROUND 845 PM...LONG ISLAND AROUND 850
PM AND BROOKNEAL AROUND 900 PM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3707 7888 3702 7890 3701 7890 3694 7893
      3709 7940 3725 7931 3717 7884

SK