Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Blacksburg, VA

190 
WWUS51 KRNK 012110
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
510 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

VAC023-012130-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0319.000000T0000Z-120801T2130Z/
BOTETOURT VA-
510 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT 
FOR EXTREME EASTERN BOTETOURT COUNTY...

AT 507 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE IN 
EXTREME EASTERN BOTETOURT COUNTY...NEAR THE ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY 
LINE..WELL EAST OF EAGLE ROCK TO EAST OF ARCADIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST 
AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 7972 3774 7968 3773 7969 3767 7967
      3766 7968 3753 7950 3753 7957 3761 7969
      3770 7972
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 312DEG 22KT 3756 7953

$$

RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT DISSIPATE OVER WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLUMN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRIER...THUS LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN
YESTERDAY AND EVEN LESS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED
UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE FALLEN OVER RATHER QUICKLY. WARMER AND
MORE SOUPY REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS
MORE DEVELOPMENT THERE LATE PM EARLY EVENING IF SOME SORT OF
OUTFLOW ARRIVES FROM STORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SW VA AND NW NC THIS
EVENING...ATTM IT IS ALLOWING STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS E KY AND SW
WEST VA. SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NW NC AND THE NC PIEDMONT SO
DID EXTEND POPS A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT. GROUND MAY STILL
BE WET ENOUGH FROM LAST NIGHT'S HVY RAIN ACROSS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY TO GENERATE A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG RIGHT AROUND DAWN...OR
IF ANOTHER STORM HAPPENS TO MOVE OVER SIMILAR AREAS TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL ANOTHER 3-5F THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIL
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...ONLY EXPECTING AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE
SW SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE OR THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY PM AT MOST. WITH
H85 TEMPS REACHING +20C TACK ON A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR MAX T IN
COMPARISON TO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR A RENEGADE EVENING TSRA SW TIER THURSDAY EVENING
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
HIGH 5H HEIGHTS WILL START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK IMPULSES ROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING PWATS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS. PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE BACK TO MORE OF A WEAK
TROFFINESS NATURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING
A BETTER SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO WEST BY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED
WITH HEATING AND MOISTURE MAY MAKE FOR MORE ORGANIZED TSRA COVERAGE
ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WEST WHERE HAVE UPPED POPS BUT KEPT BELOW LIKELYS
FOR NOW. OTRW PC AND HOT ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE LOW/MID
90S EAST AND UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS. SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALTHOUGH
STILL MUGGY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY KEEP
HIGHS A BIT LOWER OVER THE WEST BUT STILL 90ISH SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

WEAK UPPER TROFFINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LAST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY MOUNTAINS WHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
UPSTREAM SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN THE PRECEDING DEEPER SW TO
NE MOISTURE LOBE. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SE TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY
BEFORE EITHER STALLING NEARBY OR PERHAPS LIMPING THROUGH BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE 5H TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. THUS LIKE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW TO INTERACT
WITH HEATING/MOISTURE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONVECTIVE LINE MAY TAKE THE FRONT TO THE SE
MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SOME DRYING ESPCLY NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE KEEPING
SOME LOW POPS SOUTHEAST BOTH DAYS AND ISOLATED CHANCES WESTERN
RIDGES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW POP UP STORMS. OTRW
TEMPS RATHER CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY
80S EXCEPT AROUND 90 SE THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO AT BEST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS LYH WITH THE BEST CHC OF BEING HIT BY
A TSRA. STILL THOUGH THE CHC IS SO MINIMAL THAT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. TOUGH CALL AS TO IF THE GROUND WILL
STILL BE WET ENOUGH AFTER LAST NIGHT'S HVY RAIN TO GENERATE FOG.
ALTHOUGH SOME IFR CIG/VIS MAY OCCUR AGAIN...IT SHOULDN'T BE THE
SAME INTENSITY AS WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. IFR CIG/VIS LASTED
UNTIL LATE MORNING AT LWB TODAY. CU FIELD AROUND 7KFT IS EXPECTED AT
ALL AIRPORTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE WATCHING FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH THIS AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF
TSRA IN LYH TAF AS IT MOVES TO THE SE.

THE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...SCATTERED IN NATURE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ISOLATED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DIURNAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY WITH MOSTLY AFTERNOON/EVENING MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION...THE ONLY OTHER FLIGHT WEATHER
HAZARDS WOULD BE FROM OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG. STORM'S MAY BE MORE
NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 2012 WAS THE WARMEST JULY SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN
ROANOKE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/PM
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KM/PM
CLIMATE...KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-022030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
422 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
217 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW BLACKSBURG         37.29N 80.47W
07/31/2012                   MONTGOMERY         VA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN OFF ROUTE 460 IN JEFFERSON NATIONAL
            FOREST. NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS ALSO DOWN.

&&

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

VAZ020-024-012015-
BATH VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-
313 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BATH AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES...

AT 311 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF
GOSHEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR YOST AROUND 325 PM...BELLS VALLEY AROUND 335
PM...GOSHEN AROUND 340 PM...ROCKBRIDGE BATHS AROUND 410 PM AND
BROWNSBURG AROUND 415 PM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3819 7952 3816 7952 3818 7948 3817 7945
      3815 7943 3811 7948 3809 7948 3793 7920
      3788 7914 3772 7944 3817 7975 3822 7965

KK