Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
425 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING EARLY TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW BRINGS LOW CLOUDS/PASSING SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH HTS...AND SEEING SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE
CELLS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING THESE CELLS
TO BE LOW TOPPED...BUT COULD CARRY A WIND THREAT WITH POTENTIAL
TO REACH THE SURFACE IN DOWNDRAFTS. SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 6 TO 8KFT. THE DIURNAL ASPECT OF THIS
WILL COME INTO PLAY...AND WILL SEE THUNDER DISAPPEAR WITH THE SUN
THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH LEFT OF THE EARLIER DRY SLOT AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH ECHOES ARE SLIM PICKINGS AT THE
MOMENT IN THIS AREA DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

SHOWERS TO END IN THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY DRY SLOT TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF
FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH
A DISTINGUISHED TROUGH AXIS ROTATING THROUGH THE STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL WARRANT THE RETURN OF POPS...GENERALLY
AFTER 21Z...AND ENCROACHING THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FIRST.

TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
850MB VALUES DOWN TO 0C. SUN WILL OFFSET THIS A BIT FRIDAY...AND
WILL BALANCE OUT TO NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO FILL IN CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHTS
INTO SAT. AS THE LOW FILLS AND WEAKENS...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH TROF AXIS OVER UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. INCREASED
POPS ACROSS SE OH FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS H5 VORT PUSHES THROUGH.
TIMING ON THIS FEATURE IS CONSISTENT ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE MODELS.

EARLY SAT THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WHICH WILL
WORK TO SHUNT THE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT
DOES...HOWEVER...ANOTHER H5 VORT MAX WILL SWING AROUND THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND INCREASE POPS AGAIN FOR SAT. MINOR TIMING
ISSUES EXIST ACROSS THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES...SO KEEPING POPS IN THE
CHC RANGE FOR NOW AND CONFINED TO THE SE OH COUNTIES MAINLY...CLOSER
TO THE FORCING.

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND EXITING TROF AND IS BOLSTERED BY
UPPER RIDGE FILLING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMUP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES. WAS THINKING THE SURFACE FRONT MAY NOT DROP AS FAR
SOUTH AS DEPICTED BY HPC ON DAY 6 AND DAY 7.  MAIN FRONTAL ZONE MAY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  KEPT THOSE CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK WARM FRONTAL ACTION.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND HOW
FAR SOUTH THEN CAN GET.  SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE MAIN
TROF FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS... STILL
APPEARS TO STAY MILD...INTO DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...COMING DOWN TONIGHT...WITH DIRECTION CHANGES TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE...CKB TO CRW TO BKW AND EAST WILL BE PRONE TO VCTS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AS WELL. WILL KEEP VISIBILITY AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS MODEST...WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF MVFR ACCOMPANYING
PRECIPITATION.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT. WINDS TO GUST TO 20KTS AGAIN
FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TSRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT BANKING ON SCATTERED
NATURE AND NOT AFFECTING TERMINALS DIRECTLY. TIMING OF -SHRA COULD
DIFFER BY AN HOUR EITHER WAY AS WELL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KTB/ARJ
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
445 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>019-024>027-033>035-190900-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-
445 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX
DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND PRODUCE SOME
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ020-028>032-036>040-046-047-190900-
DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
445 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
319 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             CHAPMANVILLE            37.97N  82.02W
10/18/2012  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              WV   PUBLIC

            CARS DAMAGED AT CAR LOT. QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1200519

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
321 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

WVZ028-030-038-039-047-182000-
BRAXTON WV-LEWIS WV-RANDOLPH WV-UPSHUR WV-WEBSTER WV-
321 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BRAXTON...NORTHWESTERN
WEBSTER...SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS...UPSHUR AND WEST CENTRAL RANDOLPH
COUNTIES...

AT 319 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LITTLE
BIRCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CENTRALIA AROUND 330 PM...KANAWHA HEAD AROUND
345 PM AND TALLMANSVILLE AROUND 400 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
55 AND 71.

LAT...LON 3885 7993 3847 8066 3850 8068 3853 8065
      3853 8068 3853 8074 3865 8085 3906 8025

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
402 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             CLARKSBURG              39.28N  80.33W
10/18/2012  E0.25 INCH       HARRISON           WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL IN CLARKSBURG

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1200520

LZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
432 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

WVZ035>037-182115-
FAYETTE WV-NICHOLAS WV-RALEIGH WV-
432 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN RALEIGH...SOUTH CENTRAL
NICHOLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 430 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
BRADLEY TO COAL CITY TO WENONAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR OAK HILL AROUND 440 PM...THURMOND AROUND
445 PM...GHENT AROUND 450 PM...BABCOCK STATE PARK AROUND 455 PM...
MEADOW BRIDGE AROUND 510 PM AND MOUNT NEBO AROUND 515 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 NEAR BECKLEY
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 137...THE WEST VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 28 AND 53.

LAT...LON 3755 8130 3786 8131 3829 8079 3811 8066
      3807 8071 3809 8088 3806 8087 3806 8080
      3804 8082 3798 8077 3794 8080 3786 8075
      3782 8093 3777 8089 3768 8087 3771 8097
      3764 8106 3760 8107 3757 8119 3751 8122

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
438 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             CRAB ORCHARD            37.74N  81.23W
10/18/2012  E0.70 INCH       RALEIGH            WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1200521

LZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
446 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

WVZ028-030>032-037>040-047-182145-
BARBOUR WV-BRAXTON WV-HARRISON WV-LEWIS WV-NICHOLAS WV-RANDOLPH WV-
TAYLOR WV-UPSHUR WV-WEBSTER WV-
446 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BARBOUR...EASTERN BRAXTON...
EASTERN LEWIS...EASTERN NICHOLAS...RANDOLPH...SOUTHEASTERN
HARRISON...TAYLOR...UPSHUR AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...

AT 442 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
ROCK CAVE TO DIANA TO CANVAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
98 AND 104.

LAT...LON 3846 8014 3834 8031 3834 8035 3831 8035
      3810 8067 3834 8088 3864 8064 3889 8054
      3941 8015 3940 8003 3946 7994 3943 7989
      3930 7989 3924 7981 3913 7983 3908 7977
      3904 7977 3898 7956

28