Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH A BIT HARD TO FIND IN OBSERVATIONS THE EXACT LOCATION IN
THE OBS...THINKING WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING OHIO RIVER...WITH
CONVECTION STARTING TO KICK OFF ACROSS WV. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...SEEING FAIR AGREEMENT IN
HI-RES MODELS THAT ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS...WITH A BIT HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS AN
ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE. NOT MUCH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STILL
AROUND...SO THINK MOST CELLS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS LIKE YESTERDAY...WITH FLASH FLOODING A THREAT IF MULTIPLE
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA...OR ONE PERSISTENT STORM BECOMES
ROOTED TO AN OROGRAPHIC FEATURE. 3 HOUR FFG GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1
INCH FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WITH 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF
THE WV LOWLANDS...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET WATER CONCERNS
GOING. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED ISSUES SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING
IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...MODELS STRUGGLING WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND HAVE A 5-10
DEGREE SPREAD IN MOS OUTPUT. STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RIGHT BETWEEN MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
NORTH INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR HEATING TO POP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL
BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT...WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES IN
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SO MOST OF THE STORMS FRIDAY WILL BE OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VARIETY.

OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION...ENOUGH SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO LIFT TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 90S LOW LANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND LEAVE FOR A WARM AND
MUGGY FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE NO FOCUSING MECHANISM UNDER THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN THE MODELS...THEY DO DEPICT A BROAD SWATH
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. POPS RAISED INTO THE HIGHER
CHANCE RANGE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...IN THE 80S...IT WILL STILL BE VERY
WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON LATER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH CONVECTION
CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY. CONVECTION
THEN TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. BEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...SO WENT WITH VCTS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CELLS APPROACHING LOWLAND SITES...AND WILL
AMEND IF NECESSARY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE DROPS INTO MVFR IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ANYWHERE THAT GETS A GOOD SHOWER THIS
EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...KTB/JMV
AVIATION...MZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

KYZ102-103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-021800-
CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-
CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-
LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
152 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED...BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
DUE TO PERSISTENT STORMS...OR MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREA IS POSSIBLE...AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-021800-
GREENUP-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-
GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
152 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
611 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             CEDAR GROVE             38.20N 81.36W
08/01/2012  U0.88 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
640 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             CLENDENIN               38.41N 81.34W
08/01/2012  U0.50 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
642 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             ELKVIEW                 38.50N 81.47W
08/01/2012  U0.50 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
715 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLENDENIN               38.49N  81.35W
08/01/2012                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON ELK RIVER RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1200490

ARB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

WVZ020-031-020015-
DODDRIDGE WV-HARRISON WV-
717 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HARRISON AND NORTHEASTERN
DODDRIDGE COUNTIES...

AT 712 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
CLARKSBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WOLF SUMMIT AROUND 735 PM...WEST MILFORD
AROUND 755 PM...NUTTER FORT AROUND 800 PM...NUTTER FORT AROUND 805 PM
AND STONEWOOD AROUND 810 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
108 AND 121.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3929 8021 3912 8038 3912 8040 3929 8070
      3944 8057

14