Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
347 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO/IN AT 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO THE NORTH OR ALONG THE
NORTHERN OHIO ZONES. OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...HOT...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH
2500-4000J/KG SBCAPE OBSERVED ACROSS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...AS WELL AS A BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA...HAS TRIGGERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE IS WEAK/LITTLE SHEAR OBSERVED ON AREA
SOUNDINGS...AND AS A RESULT...STORMS ARE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...AND NO AREAS OF WIDESPREAD ORGANIZATION ARE EXPECTED. AS
WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
MOIST ATMOS...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.8 TO OVER 2 INCHES. SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT LARGE HAIL IS NOT TOO LIKELY AS FREEZING LEVEL IS UP
AROUND 16-17K FEET.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF LATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR EVE
SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS. ALTHOUGH BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN
TONIGHT...DID ELECT TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO THE WARM MUGGY ATMOS AND THE FACT THAT MODELS
INDICATING SEVERAL WEAK RIPPLES CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE INTO CWA TOMORROW. BUT WITH
THE HOT...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING WINDS IN THE VERTICAL...EXPECTING MORE SEVERE WEATHER.
BULK OF CWA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX TOMORROW EVENING AS A UPPER IMPULSE DIGS
SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS.

AT THIS POINT...WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...AND WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...DID NOT COME UP WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THOUGH THE
BEST OVERALL DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THU
EVE...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AS A
VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH DROPS SE-WARD TOWARDS THE AREA. SFC FRONT WILL
STILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SFC
LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG FRONT TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE S/W
TROUGH. DESPITE THIS...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING
H850 JET OVER CENTRAL OHIO SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME STORMS
IN THIS AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. STORM MOTIONS THEN WOULD TAKE
STORMS E/SE-WARD PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN PART OF FA AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA INITIALLY. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD/EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX EXISTS THU EVE AS MARGINAL SHEAR AROUND
20-25KTS MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF AREA DURING EARLY EVE. WBZ
AND FZ HEIGHTS HOWEVER CONTINUE AROUND 14K-15KFT BUT WITH EL/S OF
~45KFT AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE...AS WITH TODAY...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES HOWEVER PROGGED TO BE LESS VERSUS
TODAY/S VALUES...AND SFC-MID-LVL THETA-E DIFFERENCES ONLY AROUND 15C
AS OPPOSED TO TODAY/S 25C-28C DIFFS...SO DOWNBURST POTENTIAL NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS TODAY AS WELL. HAVING SAID THAT...THE BEST THREAT
FOR STRONG WINDS SHOULD COME ACROSS SE OHIO...AS WITH THE SVR WX
THREAT IN GENERAL. HEAVY RAINFALL/DOWNPOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME STORMS WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS OF 5-15KTS AND PWATS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES.

BY FRI MORNING THE S/W TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD WHICH
REFORMS/RETROGRADES SFC LOW FURTHER WEST...WHICH IN RESPONSE HANGS
THE FRONT UP FROM MAKING ANY REAL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AS
THIS LOW AND S/W TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS MOVING E/NE-WARD FRIDAY
DURING THE DAY...EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
MORE STORMS FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF SYSTEM AND H5 AXIS AND BETTER MOISTURE ROTATE THROUGH
AREA. POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR SOME SVR WX FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...AS MARGINAL 0-6K SHEAR
OF AROUND 20-25KTS PUSHES INTO AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WELL WITH
HIGH PWATS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WHICH HAPPEN TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL THU/THU EVE.

OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/SAT AM THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SE-WARD
AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE AROUND THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR BY
12Z SAT...BRINGING THE BULK OF HEAVIER ORGANIZED PRECIP ACTIVITY TO
AN END. DESPITE THIS...SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON EARLY EVE AS LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED AND
LLVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A BIT. MAXES AND MINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL EXTENDED NWP IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING GENERAL
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH USUAL DIFFS IN STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT. A RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA FOR THE SUN-WED TIME FRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OFF
THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER NORTHEAST
CONUS...RESULTING IN VARIOUS AMPLITUDES OF WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
PERIOD. A SLOW WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS MOISTURE REMAINS
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MOISTURE
BEGINS TO SURGE BACK NORTHWARD AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLATED FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HALT THE
WARMING TREND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
HOT...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
VICINITY OF STORMS...AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BULK OF
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF AFTER 03Z...WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE CONVECTION. ANY PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
LIFT AFTER 13Z FOR A RETURN OF VFR AREA WIDE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z...WITH STRONG
WINDS ONCE AGAIN A THREAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY
CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY TODAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH IFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-025-026-029.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-027-033>038-046-191745-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-
136 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013>015-025-026-191745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-LOGAN-BOONE-
136 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-016>020-029-191745-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
GILMER-
136 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ028-030>032-039-040-047-191745-
BRAXTON-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-RANDOLPH-
136 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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