Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THIS WEEKEND.  STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN SFC FRONT PUSHING JUST E OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND H85 FRONT JUST CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER...WILL
MOVE E ACROSS WV THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE AREA NEAR SUN SET AS
THEY START TO WANE.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY...AROUND 1500 KJ / KG...AND
FLOW EXIST FOR SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...MOSTLY SPS
MATERIAL.  MORNING POST FRONTAL CU FORMED LATE MORNING BEHIND SFC
FRONT...W OF THE MOUNTAINS.  THUS LIKE MODEL IDEA THAT ENOUGH DRYING
MAKES IT THIS FAR TO PRECLUDE THIS SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
FOG MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS.  OTHERWISE NICE
DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

DID NOT SEE MUCH ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT TO TEMPERATURES IN LIGHT OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MASS FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SATURDAY...TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF ISOLD CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON MONDAY...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY FOR CERTAIN...BUT SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOR A MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN WILL SWITCH TO ONE DOMINATED COOLER...DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS OF
LATE...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WORK WEEK
PROGRESSES...AS UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN RESPONSE TO
YET ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD
TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY THROUGH THE AREA AS OF 18Z BUT UPPER
LEVEL FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER JUST BEHIND THE BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE IN WESTERN WV AND NE KY.  THUNDERSTORMS PASS
JUST S OF HTS FIRST HOUR...AND MAY BUILD N INTO HTS AREA AS THEY GO
BY.  THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT CKB AND CRW SECOND
HOUR...19-20Z.  THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS 20-22
OR 23Z.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT TAF SITES AS
WELL.

VALLEY FOG WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TONIGHT...MAINLY WHERE IT RAINS
WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  DRIER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR VFR SATURDAY.

NW SFC FLOW WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN VEER TO N AS
IT DIMINISHES AND THEN GOES CALM TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT NE
SATURDAY.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT N TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:  TIMING OF RW/TRW MAY VARY. TIMING AND DENSITY
OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ006>011-017-
019-020-231845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-CABELL-
MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ005-013>016-018-024>040-046-047-231845-
WAYNE-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-CALHOUN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TRM

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