Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS OHIO AND
KENTUCKY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RADAR DATA INDICATES MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE PUSHED
OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PA AND EASTERN OH.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DOES NOT APPEAR PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY AND WILL
NOT PREVAIL OVER ANY AREA FOR LONG. SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR
WATER ISSUES...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR FLOODING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...AND BE IN CONTROL
ON FRIDAY. EXPECT PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/LOCAL MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY. STILL APPEARS ONLY PORTIONS OF PERRY COUNTY IN
OHIO AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MAY APPROACH
FREEZING TONIGHT. BUT DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD...IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTS
THROUGH THE CWA THIS WEEKEND IN MANY ASPECTS...LEADING TO ANOTHER
FORECAST WITH QUESTIONS IN THE CERTAINTY. SHORT TERM PERIODS BEGIN
DRY...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CWA ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO
FOLLOW SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES.

THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN AND ALSO BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS LEADS TO A LESS THAN DETERMINISTIC FORECAST WITH
THE POPS. KEEP THE LIKELIES IN SATURDAY EVENING...BUT DROP DOWN TO
LOW CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS TO THE FORECAST IS THE MOS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES AT CRW SATURDAY. THE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE LOCAL MOS AND THE MET IS OVER 30F...WITH THE ECMWF MOS
AND THE MAV RESIDING ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE. AT PLAY HERE IS THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO
WITH THE EXTREME VALUES...AND WILL GO WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS OPPOSED TO SHOOTING FOR THE MOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL HAVE THE FRONT OSCILLATING IN OUR VICINITY SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE CREEPING SOUTH ON SUNDAY...BUT BACK
NORTH AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD TRY TO FINALLY PUSH FARTHER TO OUR NORTH...TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO TEMPERATURES BECOMING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...COULD NOT GO LIKELY POPS AT
THIS DISTANCE IN TIME..

ACCEPTED MOST OF THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THRU THIS EVENING. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST...EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE.

WHILE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED BY 06Z...
EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE AFTER 12Z,,,WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 14Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND STRENGTH OF STORMS COULD VARY.
TIMING AND EXTENT OF RIVER FOG TONIGHT COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
434 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

WVZ005-006-013-262115-
CABELL WV-LINCOLN WV-WAYNE WV-
434 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
WAYNE...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN CABELL COUNTIES...

AT 430 PM EDT...THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BEECH FORK STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SALT ROCK AROUND 440 PM...WEST HAMLIN AROUND
445 PM...HAMLIN AROUND 455 PM...SWEETLAND AROUND 500 PM AND
GRIFFITHSVILLE AROUND 505 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3832 8253 3841 8235 3833 8204 3829 8205
      3828 8202 3827 8202 3826 8200 3830 8195
      3829 8191 3813 8206

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
459 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

WVZ024>026-033-034-262145-
BOONE WV-LOGAN WV-MCDOWELL WV-MINGO WV-WYOMING WV-
459 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE...SOUTHERN LOGAN...SOUTHERN MINGO AND WYOMING
COUNTIES...

AT 453 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LOGAN TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSON...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SARAH ANN...VARNEY...RED JACKET...AND
MATEWAN AROUND 510 PM...EDGARTON...AND MALLORY AROUND 515 PM...
BRUNO...PIE...AND MEADOR AROUND 520 PM AND HAMPDEN AROUND 525 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3748 8199 3749 8195 3753 8195 3754 8198
      3753 8205 3755 8208 3755 8213 3759 8213
      3762 8221 3765 8223 3767 8230 3772 8232
      3789 8191 3778 8146 3760 8132 3734 8169

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
548 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             PINEVILLE               37.58N  81.53W
04/26/2012  E0.70 INCH       WYOMING            WV   911 CALL CENTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1200242

KTB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>