Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
FRIDAY EVENING...AGAIN PRECEDED BY STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST
AREA. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER IN ADVANCE OF STORMS PER CURRENT
SAT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING WITH CONVECTION RIDING AHEAD OF SW TROF IN CNTL IL AND NRN
IN. SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF SLGHT CHC POPS THIS MORNING IN OUR SE
OH COUNTIES BASED ON THESE SATELLITE AS WELL AS MOSAIC RADAR
TRENDS. QUICKLY RAMP UP POPS ALONG THE WEAK TROF AXIS IN OUR NRN
LOWLAND COUNTIES AFTER 12Z. GOING A BIT MORE DETERMINISTIC WITH
THIS UPDATE AS THIS INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS N
CNTRL WV ENCOUNTERING MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AROUND THE
MIDDAY HOURS. INSTABILITY AND STRONG JET DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE
SHOWERS.

LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AROUND THE TRI-STATE AREA IN THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING AS
WELL AS LARGELY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MID-OHIO VALLEY SHOULD WORK TO
ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. SAGGING COLD FRONT SHOULD ACT AS AN IMPETUS
TO DEVELOP STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE TRI-STATE
AREA AND PROPAGATING EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING AMPLE CAPE IN
THE 0C TO -20C LAYER AND FZLVLS HOVERING AROUND 11KFT...HAIL COULD
BE COMMON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...CONSECUTIVE
NAM RUNS ARE SHOWING DCAPE VALUES NEARING 1400J/KG POINTING TO
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS THAT COULD BRING DOWN STRONG SYNOPTIC
WINDS...POSSIBLY TO SEVERE LEVELS. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED SEVERE IS INCREASING...WILL KEEP SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
SHOWERS IN GRIDS AS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY FOR TODAY AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT COULD DISRUPT THE OVERALL WARMING TREND.
THAT SAID...MOS GUIDANCE INCREASING MX TEMPS EVEN TO THE POINT OF
MID 80S IN SOME LOWLAND AREAS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS TO
REFLECT THIS TREND...HOWEVER...WILL NOT BE JUMPING FULLY ON BOARD
WITH THE WARMER MAV ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PLAY A LARGER ROLE.

MAJOR CHANGE TO EVENING POPS TO TRIM BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
POST-FROPA. 00Z AND 06Z NAM HAS H85-H700 MOISTURE DRYING UP QUICKLY
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS OF OH KY AND WV. ALSO...ELIMINATED SLGHT CHC
POPS IN OUR NRN WV MNT COUNTIES AS THE UPPER POST FRONT TROF SWINGS
THROUGH AROUND 12Z THURS. MODELS DO SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE TROF...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE MORE
THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW IN WAKE OF EXITING SYSTEM THU WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION GIVEN SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.  EVEN SPRINKLES NOT WORTH A
MENTION WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST TWICE.
FOR THE WIND ITSELF...DO HAVE 40-45 KT WIND GUSTS ON THE HIGHEST
RIDGES THU MORNING.

THE CLEAR...COLD NT SLATED FOR THU NT WILL BE RUSHED BY THE MAIN
CONUNDRUM OF THIS FCST PACKAGE...WHICH IS THE FASTER TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM INDICATED BY THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET.

MODEL TIMING IS ACTUALLY SIMILAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF MOVE
THROUGH THE L/W RIDGE POSN OVER THE PLAINS...BUT TIMING OF ANY
DISTURBANCE THROUGH A RIDGE IS OFTEN PROBLEMATIC.  THE 00Z ECMWF
STICKS WITH THE SLOWER SOLN VIA BUCKLING THE S/W TROF AS IT DIGS IT
INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS AND ALMOST CLOSING IT OFF AS IT GOES
BY.  THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS KEEP IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AND
ACTUALLY MINOR IT OUT AS IT MOVES IT INTO THE L/W TROF POSN ALONG
THE E COAST.

WENT WITH THE FASTER TIMING THOUGH WITH A HEDGE AT THE TAIL END.
THANKS RNK MRX JKL ILN PBZ LWX FOR COORD ON THESE FCST CHANGES.
HAVE PRECIPITATION NOW COMING IN MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON FRI AND MOVING
THROUGH DURING AND JUST FOLLOWING PEAK HEATING LATE FRI AFTERNOON
AND FRI EVENING.  HAVE A SLOW EXODUS SAT GIVEN THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF
SOLN.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST RUN OF THE MILL FOR CONVECTIVE
SEASON COLD FRONTS...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE NEAR TERM
SYSTEM WITH AN AXIS OF DECENT CAPE....PW AND WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.  VALUES ARE EVEN HIGHER OFF THE 06Z NAM12.  AXIS DOES
GET PINCHED OFF AS SYSTEM MOVES E INTO THE EVENING...SO GREATEST
THREAT IS W PORTION OF AREA.  WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER SPC SWODY3...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS W PORTION OF CWA.

BLENDED IN ADJMET ON TEMPERATURES EARLY ON AND THEN CONSALL OVER THE
WEEKEND.  NOT MUCH CHANGE THU...BUT FASTER TIMING SPELLS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MORE LIMITED FREEZE POTENTIAL THU NT...WARMER FRI AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER FRI NT AND SAT.  TOOK LOWS DOWN A LITTLE SAT NT
UNDER CLEAR SKY BUT...WITH NOT AS DRY NOR QUITE AS COLD AN AIR
MASS...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE ABLE TO SKIP THE FREEZE / FROST THING
THIS WEEKEND.  WILL CONTINUE HWO / RWS MENTION FOR THU NT / EARLY
FRI MORNING THOUGH BUT KICK THE CAN ON THE WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WENT WITH HPC THINKING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...STRAYED
SOME FROM THEIR THINKING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT.  EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CHARGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.  MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.  BECAUSE
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM W TO E
FROM 12Z TO 15Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN LARGELY
VFR...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
COULD TEMPORARILY DROP CIGS AND VSBY INTO THE MVFR RANGE. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ALREADY INCREASING AROUND THE REGION. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ONLY INCREASE...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ABOUT 00Z THURS A QUICK RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WV MNTS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE MVFR CIGS LINGERING DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIDESPREAD MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH CIGS TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/TAX/50
NEAR TERM...50/TAX
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
559 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-291000-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-
559 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER FREEZE OR FROST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ008>010-013>019-024>029-033>040-046-047-291000-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-
MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
559 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER FROST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ011-020-030>032-291000-
TYLER-DODDRIDGE-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
559 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER FREEZE OR FROST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>007-291000-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-
MASON-
559 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER FROST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TAX / TRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
950 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-281500-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW LEXINGTON...CROOKSVILLE...
SOMERSET...MCCONNELSVILLE...STOCKPORT...ATHENS...MARIETTA...
BELPRE...JACKSON...WELLSTON...OAK HILL...MCARTHUR...HAMDEN...
POMEROY...GALLIPOLIS...IRONTON...SOUTH POINT
950 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...THIS IS A TEST STATEMENT FOR THE STATEWIDE OHIO TORNADO DRILL...

REPEAT...THIS IS A TEST...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
REPEAT...THIS IS A TEST...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO EXERCISE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN...IF
POSSIBLE.

AGAIN...THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE AS PART OF THE OHIO STATEWIDE
TORNADO DRILL.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE ONLY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1133 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

OHZ067-076-281600-
MORGAN OH-WASHINGTON OH-
1133 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 1132 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MCCONNELSVILLE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR MCCONNELSVILLE AROUND 1140 AM...BRISTOL
AROUND 1145 AM AND MACKSBURG AROUND NOON.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
10 AND 17 IN OHIO.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3976 8164 3968 8163 3966 8158 3959 8158
      3959 8149 3965 8147 3960 8134 3961 8127
      3951 8127 3950 8129 3967 8201 3977 8202

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
109 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

WVZ009-017-019-281745-
RITCHIE WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
109 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WOOD...NORTHERN WIRT AND
SOUTHWESTERN RITCHIE COUNTIES...

AT 104 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF
COOLVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MINERALWELLS AROUND 115 PM...WALKER AROUND
120 PM...FREEPORT AROUND 125 PM...MACFARLAN AROUND 130 PM AND CAIRO
AROUND 135 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
165 AND 176 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3923 8110 3904 8114 3902 8117 3915 8174
      3918 8176 3919 8174 3922 8173 3923 8169
      3926 8170 3928 8167 3927 8157 3928 8156