Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Charleston, WV

756 
WGUS61 KRLX 020844
FFARLX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
444 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-WVZ009>011-017-019-020-020945-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-120502T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW LEXINGTON...CROOKSVILLE...
SOMERSET...MCCONNELSVILLE...STOCKPORT...ATHENS...MARIETTA...
BELPRE...JACKSON...WELLSTON...OAK HILL...MCARTHUR...HAMDEN...
POMEROY...PARKERSBURG...VIENNA...ST. MARYS...BELMONT...
PADEN CITY...SISTERSVILLE...MIDDLEBOURNE...ELIZABETH...
HARRISVILLE...PENNSBORO...WEST UNION
444 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THEREBY ENDING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACTING ON VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIR...RESULTING IN REPEATED THREATS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 22Z...WAS A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO INTO OUR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH THE POP GRADIENT RIGHT
IN THE HTS-CRW AREA...WITH HIGHER N AND LOWER S.  ALSO INCLUDING SOME
DOWNPOURS.

BESIDES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING...WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR BACK BUILDING...SO COULD NOT RULE OUT A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS AFTERNOON CHAT...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM UNSTABLE
AIR UP FROM THE GULF REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SWINGING
THROUGH ILLINOIS WILL BRUSH PAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING AND OVER A BROADER AREA TONIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND A SLIVER OF WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S WEST AND UPPER 50S EAST WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM TONIGHT AND ALSO SET UP WEDNESDAY
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS GRIDS COVERED
THESE TEMPERATURES WELL SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASED TEMPS TONIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES. ALSO AN AREA OF HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY INCREASING THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF REGION AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...LEAVING THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THESE WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES AWAY AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
HIGH. THESE FEATURES MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

MODELS SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.  IN ADDITION...A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA,  COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

BASED ON LATEST TEMP GUIDANCE...MADE TWEAKS TO TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT TO START THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT DIFFER AS TIME PASSES. OVERALL...LOOKING
AT A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SOON AS SATURDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
SLIDES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST...ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES...WITH
SEVERAL RIPPLES/SURFACE FEATURES MOVING ACROSS CWA. THE 06Z GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND DROPS A DEEPENING 500MB CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND ANOTHER
CLOSE LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITH THAT SAID...THE 12Z
GFS IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE EURO...SO DECIDED TO IGNORE PREVIOUS GFS
RUNS...AND TREND TOWARDS 00Z ECMWF.

BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT BASED ON EXPECTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TIMING WITH
DIRTY RIDGE TRENDED TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
INTO NORTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINA THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE THE
HTS-CRW CORRIDOR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX.

HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE COVERAGE WOULD DECREASE IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...THERE COULD BE SOME BACK BUILDING...THAT WOULD
KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN A DOWNPOUR WILL LOCAL
VISIBILITY AOB 3 MILES AND CEILINGS AROUND 2 TO 3 THSD FT.

WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT...COULD NOT RULE SOME 3 TO 5 MILES IN FOG...OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN AREAS.

SOME POST RAIN CEILINGS AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT MAY EXIST AROUND DAWN
WEDNESDAY 08Z TO 14Z...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

14Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY...HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AT 2
TO 4 THSD FT AGL...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION REFORMING MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS VCNTY EKN FOR
THE AFTERNOON. VSBY NEAR 3 MILES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IN THE WAKE OF THE EVENING CONVECTION SOME
BACK BUILDING COULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER LONGER
THAN FORECAST IN MID OHIO VALLEY. ALSO...LOWER CEILINGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF AREAS OF CLEARING OCCURS FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG IN PROTECTED VALLEYS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/JR
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

VAZ003-004-WVZ027-033>037-022030-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
IF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR HEADED FOR AN AREA MADE VULNERABLE
BY RECENT THUNDERSTORMS...THEN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR THAT AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF
CONDITIONS INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL ON ACCOUNT OF
REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>009-013>017-024>026-
022030-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
IF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR HEADED FOR AN AREA MADE VULNERABLE
BY RECENT THUNDERSTORMS...THEN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR THAT AREA.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF
CONDITIONS INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL ON ACCOUNT OF
REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ010-011-018>020-028>032-038>040-046-047-022030-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. IF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR HEADED FOR AN AREA MADE
VULNERABLE BY RECENT THUNDERSTORMS...THEN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NECESSARY FOR THAT AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF
CONDITIONS INDICATE EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL ON ACCOUNT OF
REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
501 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

WVZ033-034-012130-
MCDOWELL WV-WYOMING WV-
501 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING COUNTIES...

AT 459 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BLUEFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MAYBEURY AROUND 510 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3725 8151 3738 8157 3753 8124 3752 8123
      3751 8123 3746 8130 3742 8128 3741 8131
      3732 8136 3730 8140 3728 8140 3724 8148

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
540 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             ANAWALT                 37.34N 81.44W
05/01/2012  U0.50 INCH       MCDOWELL           WV   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED 4:55PM

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

OHZ075-084-012345-
ATHENS OH-VINTON OH-
712 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN VINTON AND WESTERN
ATHENS COUNTIES...

AT 709 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES EAST OF
CHILLICOTHE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ALLENSVILLE AROUND 720 PM...CREOLA AROUND 735
PM...ZALESKI AROUND 740 PM AND LAKE HOPE STATE PARK AROUND 745 PM.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3923 8212 3922 8277 3937 8275 3937 8264
      3938 8263 3938 8252 3940 8251 3939 8230
      3947 8229 3947 8218 3955 8217 3956 8215
      3955 8213

26