Flash Flood Watch 14, NWS Charleston, WV

Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Gallia County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Buchanan County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Roane County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

226 
WGUS61 KRLX 241948
FFARLX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>016-018-
024>030-033>040-046-047-242100-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.A.0014.000000T0000Z-120725T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-CALHOUN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLATWOODS...GREENUP...GRAYSON...
OLIVE HILL...ASHLAND...LOUISA...JACKSON...WELLSTON...OAK HILL...
GALLIPOLIS...IRONTON...SOUTH POINT...CLINTWOOD...GRUNDY...
VANSANT...KENOVA...CEREDO...WAYNE...HUNTINGTON...POINT PLEASANT...
NEW HAVEN...RAVENSWOOD...RIPLEY...HARTS...ALUM CREEK...HAMLIN...
TEAYS VALLEY...HURRICANE...CHARLESTON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...
SAINT ALBANS...SPENCER...GRANTSVILLE...WILLIAMSON...LOGAN...
CHAPMANVILLE...MAN...MADISON...CLAY...SUTTON...GASSAWAY...
BURNSVILLE...GLENVILLE...WESTON...WELCH...GARY...WAR...MULLENS...
OCEANA...PINEVILLE...BECKLEY...FAYETTEVILLE...SUMMERSVILLE...
RICHWOOD...CRAIGSVILLE...WEBSTER SPRINGS...BUCKHANNON...
PHILIPPI...BELINGTON...MARLINTON...ELKINS
348 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN REALIZED AND THE THREAT
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.  



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
915 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED PATTERN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. COLD
FRONT FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN.

TRIED TO FINE TUNE HOURLY POPS A BIT...BUT IT WILL BE A
FLUID/CHANGING PROCESS AS THE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE. ONE BATCH DEVELOPED BETWEEN 11 AND 12Z BETWEEN CRW AND BKW
AND WILL BE CROSSING THE SRN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING.  ANY
SHOWER COULD BE A DOWNPOUR.  ALSO CLUSTERS OF CONSIDERABLE
LIGHTNING.

700 FLOW UPSTREAM ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS...WAS ONLY 25 KNOTS EARLIER
AT CRW BUT HAS INCREASED TO 35 KNOT AFTER 13Z.  SO INDIVIDUAL CELLS
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WATER...BUT IN THIS PATTERN
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE.  AS A RESULT...WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OR LOCALIZED WARNING.

MOST SUNSHINE SHOULD BE BETWEEN CRW AND CKB...AND MAY BE THE LAST TO
DEVELOP THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A BIT IN THE TRI STATE AROUND HTS DUE TO CONVECTION AND
CLOUDS.

OF COURSE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH A POSSIBILITY TOO WITH CAPE
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG...BUT MORNING ACTIVITY WILL CERTAINLY BE
A FACTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL DICTATE WHERE THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE SETS
UP...AND THUS WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF HIGHER POPS WILL EXIST IN
THE SHORT TERM. SAID FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT TAKING OVER TEMPORARILY WHILE IN THE WARM
SECTOR THURSDAY...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MIDWEST
FOR FRIDAY. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON FRIDAY...SETTING UP A SLIGHT CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...AND WILL HAVE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
DETERMINE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. HPC QPF IS NOT QUITE AS BULLISH...BUT
STILL CANNOT DISCOUNT LOCALIZED ISSUE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SET TO SPIKE WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY AND LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH WELL DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. WILL GET SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY
NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE EVENT.
NAM CURRENTLY HAS ELEVATED CAPE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD AS WELL IN SUPPORT OF THE JET. DAYTIME HEATING ADDS
TO THE THREAT FRIDAY...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL IN PLACE.

WILL SEE A MODEST COOLING TREND WITH LONG TERM MODELS HEDGING
TOWARDS LOWER 500HPA HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

IN THE END...ABLE TO MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MODELS RELATIVELY STABILIZED IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. A FEW SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A
COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

LATEST TEMP GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TEMP FORECAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SO VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS NUMBERS. GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
WAS USED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...
WEATHER DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
KEYING IN ON UPPER MIDWEST DEVELOPING TSTM COMPLEX THAT WILL
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 13Z-14Z...REACHING A CKB-CRW LINE
AROUND 16Z-17Z...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY 20Z-21Z. VFR
CEILINGS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR WITHIN THE COMPLEX. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING THIS
COMPLEX WILL REACH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING OUT BY 00Z.

BY 00Z...CONVECTION ENDS NORTH...AND DECREASES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
AFTER 00Z...HAVE INTRODUCED MAINLY SOME MVFR FOG TO ACCOUNT FOR
POTENTIAL IN POST RAIN AREAS...BUT DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY DEPENDS
ON CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM .

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS AREA COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
INTENSITY MAINLY AFTER 00Z IN POST RAIN AREAS...WILL VARY BASED ON
CLOUDS AND WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB/JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-
047-250745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-
BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-
WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-
LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS TODAY WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-WVZ009>011-250745-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS TODAY WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE
FLOODING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.