Winter Storm Watch 9, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
316 PM MST SAT DEC 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD WITH TWO MAIN SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN A HIGHER IMPACT SYSTEM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL TRY TO HIT
THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TODAY'S SYSTEM IS LIFTING
NE ACROSS OUR SERN QUARTER WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND THICK
CLOUD COVER. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. A
NEW QUICKLY APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE PACNW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM IS RACING EAST FROM AROUND 170W/50N AREA ON A POTENT JET UP
BETWEEN 180 AND 200KTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRECEDED BY SOME
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE WEST AFTER 06Z MONDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AND JET STREAK DYNAMICS MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC
SNOWFALL COULD BE PRETTY HEAVY AS STRONG AS IT IS INDICATED ON THE
GFS BUT THEN THE COMBO OF WIND AND SNOW MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH
IMPACT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE LAST TO IMPROVE WILL BE THE
SOUTHWEST. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS
AS FAR EAST AS THE PINEDALE ZONE AND WEST SIDE OF THE
WINDS...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH PASS WHEN THE WINDS HIT EVEN THOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE BORDERLINE (FOR WIDESPREAD 12 INCHES). OTHER
ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO FILL IN THE HOLES. AREAS
LIKE THE ABSAROKAS...UPPER GREEN AND SWEETWATER COUNTY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO MAINLY
IMPACT THE FAR SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY CASPER ON TUESDAY BUT MOST OF
THE ENERGY IS TRENDING SOUTH.

WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR EAST OF THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WIND
CORRIDOR SUNDAY BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND POTENTIAL BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A BRIEF MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE IS SHOWING UP
ON THE 06Z RUN OF THE WRF OVER THE CODY FOOTHILLS WITH SOME HINT
OF A MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION. THE 18Z RUN IS LESS BULLISH. ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE BEST PERIOD...06-15Z MONDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE AT BEST BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE AS THE RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST. THE WIND CORRIDOR WILL THEN TAKE CENTER
STAGE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COMBINED WITH BACKING H7 FLOW OF 50+
KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE EAST SLOPE OF THE WIND RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE YET SO HELD OFF
ON ANY HIGH WIND WATCHES YET. IT STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED THOUGH.
LOTS OF WIND MOST AREAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE
JET PUSHING EAST INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
SNOWFALL WILL BE CONTINUING PRIMARILY WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TOGWOTEE PASS TO SOUTH PASS TO CASPER TUESDAY EVENING
WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY EXITING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 700MB LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND A SURFACE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL CO. ANY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
ACTIVITY THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE CASPER/CASPER MOUNTAIN AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER UPSLOPE ACROSS AREAS TO THE WEST LIKE THE
LANDER FOOTHILLS WHERE LESS SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED. IN
ADDITION...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DELIVER ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO
SWEETWATER AND NATRONA COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THIS TIME FRAME WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A RESULTANT
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THIS PATTERN
CHANGE...WILL BUY INTO IT. A RIDGE LIKE THIS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WILL TRANSLATE TO STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WITH THE MILDEST
TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS THAT MIX OUT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER
AREAS LIKE CASPER WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH THAT
MIX OUT LIKE JOHNSON COUNTY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVER IN THE
VICINITY OF CPR. WITH THE ANTICIPATED FRESH SNOW COVER HAVE A
MENTION OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG OVER THE BASINS AND
VALLEYS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/MORNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...A LULL IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z THIS EVENING.
THIS SNOWFALL WILL LEAVE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL. MOUNTAINS
WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SNOWFALL...WITH POSSIBLE
ICING AND TURBULENCE THROUGH THE AVIATION PASSES. MOST TERMINALS
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH KJAC EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE LONGER PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL. THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE MOST ADDITIONAL
REMAINING LOWER ELEVATION TERMINALS BY 15Z SUNDAY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY
SUNSET. OTHERWISE GUSTY WIND WILL DEVELOP AFTER 07Z SUNDAY ACROSS
FAVORED TERMINALS...INCLUDING KCPR.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH MONDAY. THE WEST WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SNOW WITH A MAJOR STORM HITTING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
WYZ020.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
WYZ012>014-023-025.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
WYZ019.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WYZ027.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
WYZ024.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WYZ001.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WYZ003.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

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