Special Weather Statement, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
248 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AIDING IN A FEW STORMS IN THE SOUTH
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST BEING AIDED BY LEFTOVER
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION OVER SRN NV.
POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST BEHIND THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO
AIDING IN A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION ENTERING OUR FAR SWRN ZONES.
BPI REPORTED .85 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES AS ONE STORM MOVED RIGHT
OVER THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 1 AND 1:30 PM. THIS STORM IS NOW MOVING
OVER THE SRN END OF THE WIND RIVER MTNS AND MAY IMPACT THE LANDER
FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE WIND RIVER BASIN WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHTING AND RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO OUR
NRN ZONES WILL SAG INTO THE CENTRAL ZONE OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE A
FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED WITH COOLING AT THE SURFACE COUNTERING THE SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT. BEST BET WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER THE
NRN MOUNTAINS AND THEN TRYING TO DRIFT SE INTO THE NRN WIND RIVER
BASIN AND TOWARDS CASPER LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
SOME WEAK SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS
FRONT IN OUR ERN ZONES. THE RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS CANADIAN SHORTWAVE ALLOWING FOR A DRIER
DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ON FRIDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
IS LEAST BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE NAM HAS MUCH MORE
CONVECTION. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS SEEM REASONABLE WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF SOME STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO
WILL KEEP IDEA OF ISOLATED STORMS EVERYWHERE FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
VERY WARM TO HOT DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS
THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE.  THE GFS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AND THE GEM KEEPS THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE TO
OUR EAST.  HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING
ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COVERAGE MAY BE HIGHER
IN SOME AREAS AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH.  THE GFS DRIES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODEL AGREEMENT
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN GOING DRY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH 04Z. VCTS WITH GUSTY WIND HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH 08Z AT SOME
LOCATIONS. AFTER 08Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ACROSS
THE AREA.  ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY
AFFECTING KJAC AND KCPR ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WYOMING MOUNTAINS.  ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KJAC CAN EXPECT TO SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED STORM
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. THURSDAY
SHOULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST
OF KJAC.  FRIDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF SOME MONSOON MOISTURE AND
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS WESTERN WY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
DISTRICT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY LEADING TO A DRIER DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BERC
AVIATION...BERC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
239 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

WYZ001>020-022>030-251200-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
239 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 MPH AND 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUFFALO TO CASPER IN
THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON
AT 1-800-211-1448.

TEAM RIVERTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
314 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

WYZ015-017-018-242200-
LANDER FOOTHILLS WY-WIND RIVER BASIN WY-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST WY-
314 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM MDT...

AT 310 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LANDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. PEA SIZED HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
U.S. HWY 287 MILE MARKER 80 AROUND 325 PM MDT.
LANDER AROUND 330 PM MDT.
MILFORD AROUND 340 PM MDT.
HWY JCT 287 AND 132 AROUND 400 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A
FLOODED ROADWAY.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4305 10880 4296 10849 4270 10870 4277 10893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 204DEG 7KT 4282 10876

SKRBAC

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