Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Riverton, WY

948 
WWUS85 KRIW 132013
RFWRIW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
213 PM MDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL EVAPORATE MOST OF THE
FALLING RAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND RAISE THE RISK OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

WYZ275-276-279-282-283-285-287-289-140400-
/O.CON.KRIW.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120714T0400Z/
NORTH BIG HORN BASIN/WORLAND BLM-CODY FOOTHILLS-
SWEETWATER COUNTY/ROCK SPRINGS BLM/FLAMING GORGE NRA-
SOUTH BIG HORN BASIN/WORLAND BLM-
UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN/WIND RIVER BASIN-SOUTH BIGHORN MOUNTAINS-
OWL CREEK MOUNTAINS-GRANITE/GREEN/FERRIS/RATTLESNAKE MOUNTAINS-
213 PM MDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY...DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 275...276...279...282...283...285...
287 AND 289...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 275...276...279...282... 
  283...285...287 AND 289.

* TIMING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ALONG THE HIGHER 
  ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL DRIFT 
  EAST ACROSS THE DRY CENTRAL BASINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND COULD 
  CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 13 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 90.

* LIGHTNING...LAL OF 2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH AN LAL OF 
  6 NEAR MOUNTAIN RANGES AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. 

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
  EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT OVER THE 
  DRIER BASINS AND WILL BEGIN TO COLLAPSE...WHICH COULD SEND OUT 
  STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS...35 TO 45 MPH WITH OUTFLOW EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN 
  STRONGER STORMS. 

* IMPACTS...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN AND STRONG 
  ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF FIRE STARTS 
  ACROSS THE AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RIVERTON

762 
WWUS85 KRIW 140115
RFWRIW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
715 PM MDT FRI JUL 13 2012


WYZ275-276-279-282-283-285-287-289-140215-
/O.CAN.KRIW.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120714T0400Z/
NORTH BIG HORN BASIN/WORLAND BLM-CODY FOOTHILLS-
SWEETWATER COUNTY/ROCK SPRINGS BLM/FLAMING GORGE NRA-
SOUTH BIG HORN BASIN/WORLAND BLM-
UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN/WIND RIVER BASIN-SOUTH BIGHORN MOUNTAINS-
OWL CREEK MOUNTAINS-GRANITE/GREEN/FERRIS/RATTLESNAKE MOUNTAINS-
715 PM MDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
275...276...279...282...283...285...287 AND 289...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RIVERTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1154 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

CERTAINLY A MUCH LESS ACTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS WITH NO SHORT
WAVES THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY SOME CUMULUS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW ECHOES MOVING TRYING
TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREEN BASIN SO WE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THAT VICINITY. ALMOST ALL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND ALTHOUGH WE CANT RULE OUT ONE
SNEAKING INTO ADJACENT AREAS THE CHANCE IS SMALL ENOUGH THAT THE
POPS WERE KEPT SILENT. ALMOST ALL CONVECTION SHOULD END TONIGHT
EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSH THEN BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPANDING A
BIT. NAM IS DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB SHOWING THE CONVECTION TODAY SO
THIS MODEL WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE FORECAST. SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE MORNING AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED.
HAVE INCLUDED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR FRIDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE DIVIDE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS ONCE AGAIN WITH MANY STORMS REMAINING DRY. STORMS
SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE WEST
SO SOME WET STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN
FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND POSSIBLY PUSHING CLOSE TO 100 MARK FOR SOME OF
THE NORMALLY WARMER PLACES IN THE BIG HORN BASIN.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY WITH DEEPER FLOW
BRINGING IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO AROUND AN INCH TO MANY AREAS
AROUND THE CWA. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING
ALOFT FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BREAK OUT BEFORE NOON AND BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING. WITH THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATERS THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCE OF WET STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ONE BIG X FACTOR WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. IF THE DAY TURNS OUT MAINLY CLOUDY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER AND THERE MAY BE MORE SHOWERY WEATHER
WITH FEWER THUNDERSTORMS...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

BY SUNDAY THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
ALLOW FOR THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT LESS. THE BEST
COVERAGE ON SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE AS
WELL AS THE BIGHORNS WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE THE
BASINS MAINLY DRY BUT WITH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE LINGERING WILL
LEAD IN SLIGHT POPS. NAM IS INDICATING POSSIBLY A BIT MORE ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE BIGHORNS BUT I AM NOT BUYING IT AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH CONTINUES ITS SHIFT EASTWARD
TO CO/KS...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACNW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MONSOONAL/PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD COVERAGE WISE...LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS AND THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ELSEWHERE. WITH
THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM ON THE
CUT OFF LOW...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK INTO CO. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. WENT WITH THE 12Z GFS DUE TO THE
PERFORMANCE IN THE LAST WEEK OR TWO...HANDLING THE OVERALL PATTERN
BETTER...AND NAMELY FORECASTING THE CUT OFF LOW MORE ACCURATELY THAN
THE ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EAST TODAY.  THIS SHIFT WILL BRING IN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMING PRIMARILY BETWEEN
19Z-14/03Z.  TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KPNA/KJAC...MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  ISOLATED TS MAY MOVE OFF THE EAST SLOPES
OVER THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRODUCE STRONG ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS...VCNTY KLND/KRIW/KCOD/KWRL.  A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
PREVAIL VCNTY AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
VERY ISOLATED EAST OF THIS LINE.  A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE
WEST AND CENTRAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE UINTA
RANGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING.
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MID LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA.  COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING EVEN MORE STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THESE STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRODUCING WETTING RAIN.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
WYZ140-275>283-285>289-300-414>416.

&&

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...LAVOIE
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BERC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
348 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012

WYZ001>020-022>030-131000-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
348 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST AND MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING AN INCREASED FIRE RISK.

SATURDAY...AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE QUITE STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEAM RIVERTON