Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
341 PM PST WED JAN 18 2012

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY REMAINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NV SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE PEAK
WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT HAVE GUSTED BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. RIDGE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP OFF
BUT ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 80 MPH. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT, IF WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY. HAVE CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING AS IS FOR NOW,
WITH THE IDEA OF EXTENDING IT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
POSSIBLE. LABELLE

.SHORT TERM...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NV THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY AND THE SIERRA FRONT. THE
STRONG INVERSION ALOFT INDICATED BY THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING HAS
HELD OFF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM,
WITH BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING SOUTH TO
THE TAHOE BASIN BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE, STARTING AT 6500-7000 FEET THURSDAY,
THEN BRIEFLY DROP TO 5000-6000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT, ONLY TO RISE
AGAIN TO 7000 FEET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CASCADES INTO
THE SIERRA THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL LEAVE MOUNTAINS SNOW
CAPPED AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 5000 FEET AND IN THE TAHOE BASIN ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL IN THE TAHOE
BASIN, BUT IT WILL BE WET AND SLUSHY, WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
FLUCTUATION CAUSING A RAIN/SNOW MIX MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION, WINDS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO RAMP UP ACROSS WESTERN NV. H700
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 55+ KNOTS WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
AS THE CORE OF THE JET MOVES OVER CENTRAL OR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
40-50KT WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON SO
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SIERRA FRONT, WASHOE COUNTY
AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THURSDAY. EXPECTING GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS PEAKING AFTER SUNSET.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RIGHT BEHIND THE FIRST WITH WESTERN NV WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION REACHES
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LABELLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OF THE SECOND SYSTEM IS ON
TRACK TO REACH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE TAHOE ZONE ABOVE 7000 FT AND MONO ZONE ABOVE
7500 FT FOR LATE FRI AFTN THRU SAT MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA COULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL A WILD CARD AS 700
MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BE RATHER MILD AROUND -1 C FOR THE LATE
AFTN-EVE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO SNOW LEVELS 8000-8500 FT, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 700 MB AND STRONG
FORCING COULD PUSH SNOW LEVELS LOWER BY NEARLY 1000 FEET AT TIMES.
AT LAKE LEVEL, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THRU EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE
PRECIP TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL PUSH
INTO THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY WITH PROJECTED TOTALS UP TO ONE HALF
INCH NEAR AND EAST OF THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR, WITH AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY BOTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. WIND SPEEDS
MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BUT TIMING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA, THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS APPEARS TO BE FRI NIGHT AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN, WHILE ON SAT THE STRONGER GUSTS COULD SHIFT
EAST TO THE W-CNTRL NV BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS TO BE MUCH DRIER AS TIMING
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO SUN NIGHT. IN BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS, SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA AND INTO NERN
CA-NWRN NV, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LESS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE HWY 95 CORRIDOR.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER AND BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP TO ERN CA FROM TAHOE NWD BUT THE GFS IS ABOUT
6-12 HOURS LATER WITH PRECIP ONSET. THE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN QUITE
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES BEYOND FRIDAY SO AT
LEAST SOME MENTION OF PRECIP WAS LEFT IN MOST AREAS FOR SAT NIGHT-
SUN EXCEPT FOR W-CNTRL NV. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR SAT NIGHT, TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS,
BUT THEN SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE ON SUN AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. MJD

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THE FINAL UPPER DISTURBANCE BEFORE RIDGING
RETURNS WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE FRI NIGHT SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD START OUT LOWER. WE MIGHT HAVE TO POP OUT ANOTHER
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS ONCE WE GET
PAST THE FRI NIGHT SYSTEM.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED, AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO REBUILD
OVER THE REGION AS A DEEP NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE
MAIN STORM TRACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRYING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THE RIDGE GETS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED, WE WILL HAVE
THE CHANCE FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AS THE WARMER AIR
PUSH WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE RIDES OVER THE COLDER ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS FROM MON. THEREFORE, I HAVE LINGERED PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH TUES NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING CHANCES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA BY WED AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE.

AS FAR AS DETAILS OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION, THE ECMWF HAS A ROBUST
SIGNATURE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA BUT THE GFS LOOKS A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE, HOW MUCH
PRECIP WE GET AND WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL WINDS UP BEING IS STILL
VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR. IN ANY CASE, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE
ON A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE TAKES
HOLD. SNYDER

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TONIGHT THRU THU AFTN WITH
S-SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KT THRU THIS EVE AND 35-45 KT ON THU.
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN TO RENO THRU
THURS AFTN AS WINDS ABOVE THE SFC INCREASE AND ALSO CHANGE TO A
WEST DIRECTION. AFTER 00Z THU EVE, CIGS AND VSBY WILL BEGIN TO
WORSEN TO IFR OR BELOW LANDING MINIMUMS FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS
AS SNOW SPREADS INTO THESE AREAS. FOR KRNO, A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN
MAY REDUCE CIGS OR VSBY TO MVFR THURS NIGHT. MJD

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY NVZ005.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ450.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
     ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY NVZ003.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
     IN NVZ004.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
     ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY CAZ070.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ272-273.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR CAZ073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
     ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR CAZ072.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR CAZ072.

&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>