Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
755 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 755 PM SATURDAY...

INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MSAS LIFTED INDICES SHOWING VALUES OF -6C IN
THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO ALONG AND
WEST OF U.S. 1. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES
GRADUALLY PULLING EAST...WITH THE AXIS OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER
800J/KG FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN EASTWARD. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE WATCH SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE BY 10 PM WHERE IT CONTINUES.
OVERNIGHT...BUFR SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BEFORE THE MID
LEVELS DRY QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 09Z. CLOUDS SHOULD BE PREVALENT FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS THE TENNESSEE BORDER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FROM THE LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD TO
NEAR 70 TOWARD KCTZ AND KFAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 246 PM SUNDAY...

INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY. NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
MOST LOCALES TO HAVE SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NLY...ADVECTING COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
TEMPS TO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP RANGE DUE
TO THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH APPEAR ON TARGET AT THIS TIME.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A THIN BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. NLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE 805MB THERMAL
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD DOWN INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT...
WITH THE JET AXIS...MOVES EAST MONDAY...AND DESPITE A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT...THE OVERALL AIR MASS IS DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 0.75 INCH THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY EARLY MONDAY...REMAINING THERE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
IS DRIER AROUND 850MB THAN THE NAM...WHICH FORECASTS SOME LINGERING
850MB THETA-E IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF U.S. 64 TUESDAY...AND IF THE NAM VERIFIES...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY BROKEN HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE VERY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS MODEST ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF U.S. 1 MONDAY MORNING...AND BASED ON THE AVAILABLE WIND
ABOVE THE INVERSION MONDAY MORNING ON BUFR SOUNDINGS...THERE SHOULD
BE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS KNOTS FROM MID-MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SAME BASIC PATTERN SHOULD EXIST TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE SPEEDS TWO OR THREE KNOTS LESS AS THE MORNING
GRADIENT IS NOT SO TIGHT AND 925MB WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AT THAT
TIME COMPARED TO EARLY MONDAY. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGHS
A SHADE UNDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE OVERALL
TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN COOLER. ONLY WENT
ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO COOLER...THOUGH...DUE TO EXPECTED SUN EVEN IF
SOME CU DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...STAYING ABOVE THE VERY COOL MET MOS MIN AT
KRWI FOR NOW DUE TO THE GRADIENT MONDAY NIGHT. AREAS TOWARD KLHZ AND
KHNZ...THOUGH...COULD SEE LOWS CLOSER TO 50.

FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG-TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE MIDDLE AND THE END THE OF WEEK...EVENTUALLY
SLIDING THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT EAST BY SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE GULF COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AND A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
MINIMAL INTO FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE OVERALL MOISTURE SOME...BUT DEGREE OF RETURN
OF MUCH HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY BE LIMITED BY CONTINUED
SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE GFS FORECASTS MORE OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY
WHICH MAY END UP INITIALLY BEING LARGELY DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF
FORECASTS MORE OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WITH AN ATLANTIC
FETCH...THE RESULT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY...SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO JUST BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE BY SATURDAY. CAN ENVISION SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
INTRODUCING SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON GUIDANCE EVOLUTION WITH THE AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR JUST AFTER THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD
IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY ADVECTING THROUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES.
WILL NOTE THAT THE GFS MOS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR RAIN CHANCES IS
VIRTUALLY ALL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH FRIDAY...RISING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY SATURDAY. THIS TREND IS IDENTICAL TO THE GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY...WHEN ALL MEMBERS WERE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY EXCEPT ON FRIDAY...
WHICH WAS THEN THE LAST DAY. HIGHS AND LOWS SLOWLY RISE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOLEST 1000-500MB THICKNESSES. HAVE PUSHED
LOWS TO AROUND 50 IN MANY AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE THAT
NIGHT...AND FOR A COUPLE OF TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...THAT MAY
END UP BEING A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM SATURDAY...

IFR CONDITIONS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS LINE SHOULD EXIT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRWI BY 930 PM. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH...AND PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE THE TRIAD...CEILINGS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRWI. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
BRIEFLY TOWARD KRDU AND KFAY...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THOSE IS
TOWARD KRWI. A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY...AND CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND CLOUDS WILL
SCATTERED WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHOW
A FEW GUSTS IN THE TEENS KTS ESPECIALLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI BASED
ON AVAILABLE WIND ON MODEL GUIDANCE BUFR SOUNDINGS. BEYOND THE 00Z
VALID TAF PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION...EXPECT
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A FEW WIND
GUSTS AGAIN IN THE TEENS KTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MID-MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI IN PARTICULAR...WITH THE
GUSTS A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RTE
NEAR TERM...WSS/DJF
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...WSS/DJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
801 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-100015-
WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-
WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
801 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD END BY 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. WE APPRECIATE
YOUR SERVICE.

NCZ007>009-021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084-100015-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
801 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DJF

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