Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2012
Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC
NWS Raleigh, NC issued this special weather statement at Sep 6, 2012, 5:34 PM EDT for Johnston County, North Carolina. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 6, 2012, 5:34 PM EDT (21:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 6, 2012, 6:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- NWS Raleigh, NC
County Johnston County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 831 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -13 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 833 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -19 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -21 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Sep 6, 2:54 PM EDT, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 6, 2:54 PM EDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 254 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 252 PM THURSDAY... THROUGH TONIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY DEVELOP...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALONG THE NC COAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATE CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...SETTLING ALONG THE NC COAST LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING TO LIKELY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...AND KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW TO SE AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OCCURS...AND SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S NW TO NEAR 70 SE. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FARTHER EAST. RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NW BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FROM NW TO SE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY... AS A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES)...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BULK SHEAR OVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH REGARD TO A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE PRECIP AS THE NAM BRINGS IN THE MAIN LINE DURING PEAK HEATING AND THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MENTION OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND IN THE HWO. ONE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP MOVES OUT AND SOME DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WILL TREND LOWS FROM THE LOW 60S (MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S) ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 60S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES... THOUGH PRIMARILY AT THE GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 03Z FRIDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT EXPECT SUB-VFR FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE FAY/RWI TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM....KC SHORT TERM...KRR LONG TERM...KRR AVIATION...KC/VINCENT
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 6, 12:45 PM EDT, 4 hours 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1245 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012 NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-071645- GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE- CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND- SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 1245 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN URBAN AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-074-083-071645- PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY- MONTGOMERY-ANSON- 1245 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 6, 4:50 PM EDT, 44 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
450 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012
NCZ076-077-062100-
HARNETT-LEE-
450 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT AND LEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
AT 450 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SANFORD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... RURAL EASTERN LEE
COUNTY.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
&&
LAT...LON 3543 7919 3555 7923 3556 7922 3557 7923
3556 7920 3558 7920 3563 7912 3562 7908
3556 7903 3553 7897 3558 7892 3553 7875
3536 7891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 271DEG 23KT 3556 7912
MWSLocal storm report, Sep 6, 4:52 PM EDT, 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
452 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0435 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW ROLESVILLE 35.87N 78.50W
09/06/2012 M1.75 INCH WAKE NC TRAINED SPOTTER
1.75 INCHES FELL IN 30 MINUTES ON ARDEN BRANCH LANE
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1200923
KRRLocal storm report, Sep 6, 4:58 PM EDT, 36 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
458 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM HEAVY RAIN CHAPEL HILL APT 35.94N 79.08W
09/06/2012 M2.41 INCH ORANGE NC ASOS
FELL WITHIN PAST HOUR AND HALF AND STILL RAINING
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1200924
KRRLocal storm report, Sep 6, 4:59 PM EDT, 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
459 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0458 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW RALEIGH 35.77N 78.68W
09/06/2012 M1.16 INCH WAKE NC NWS OFFICE
FELL IN 30 MINUTES... STILL RAINING
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1200925
KRRLocal storm report, Sep 6, 5:13 PM EDT, 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
513 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE RALEIGH 35.78N 78.61W
09/06/2012 WAKE NC 911 CALL CENTER
ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO HIGH WATER NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
RALEIGH BLVD AND NEW BERN AVE. ALSO RECEIVING REPORTS OF
VEHICLES STALLED IN FLOODED ROADWAYS IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA.
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1200926
NPSpecial weather statement, Sep 6, 5:34 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
534 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012
NCZ042-077-078-089-062230-
HARNETT-JOHNSTON-SAMPSON-WAYNE-
534 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SAMPSON...HARNETT...WAYNE
AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...
AT 534 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DUNN...OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF LILLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... RURAL SOUTHERN
JOHNSTON COUNTY RURAL WESTERN WAYNE COUNTY.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
&&
LAT...LON 3524 7862 3525 7864 3538 7868 3553 7818
3540 7812 3524 7810 3521 7863
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 256DEG 14KT 3532 7855
MWSThe office that day
Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 1:18 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Granville, Halifax, Person, Vance, Warren | 57 min |
| Sep 6, 1:37 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Granville, Halifax, Person, Vance, Warren | 53 min |
| Sep 6, 2:24 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Granville, Halifax, Vance, Warren | 96 min |
| Sep 6, 2:39 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Halifax | 3 hr |
| Sep 6, 3:42 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Wake | 63 min |
| Sep 6, 4:05 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Durham, Orange | 3 hr |
| Sep 6, 4:22 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Wake | 3 hr |
| Sep 6, 4:22 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Orange | 2 hr |
| Sep 6, 4:29 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Franklin, Wake | 3 hr |
| Sep 6, 4:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Johnston, Wake | 60 min |
| Sep 6, 4:43 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Chatham | 17 min |
| Sep 6, 4:50 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Lee | 10 min |
| Sep 6, 5:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Johnston, Sampson, Wayne | 52 min |
| Sep 6, 6:37 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Cumberland | 53 min |
| Sep 6, 7:23 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Cumberland | 3 hr |
| Sep 6, 7:43 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Cumberland | 76 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.