Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
407 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM...

SEVERE THREAT CLOSE TO ZERO WITH MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO EAST OF HIGHWAY 220... AND ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET BUT SOME WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT... PERHAPS PAST MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG AND STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. LOW TEMPERATURES 72 TO 76.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT COMPLETE CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS... THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS FAVOR THE 850 MILLIBAR
CONVERGENCE ZONE DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID
AFTERNOON MONDAY. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND MUCH OF THE NORTH... LEAVING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ACCEPTED.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO STALL THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
64 MONDAY NIGHT... WHICH WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IN THAT AREA. COULD EASILY SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OF ONE HALF INCH NORTH... WITH AMOUNTS
NEAR ONE TENTH INCH MORE COMMON SOUTHEAST. OBVIOUSLY MUCH HIGHER
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES 70 TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

A QUASI-STATIONARY POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
WILL EXTEND FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THE TAIL END OF WHICH WILL CONSIST OF THE LOW-MID
CIRCULATION OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF
THIS FORCING AMIDST A DEEPLY MOIST...UNCAPPED...AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
2-2.25" AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AOA 70 DEGREES...SHOULD SUPPORT
DIURNALLY- MAXIMIZED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE
PRECIPITATION-LOADED DOWNBURST WINDS...OWING TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
(10-20 KTS) AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE.
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH IN THE
EAST WILL RELOAD AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MORE TIMES...AS SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY --
INCLUDING A CLOSED LOW WITH THE LEAD S/W TROUGH THU-SAT...THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUCH A PATTERN -- WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWEST ALOFT --
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY COLD FRONT TO MAKE INROADS
THROUGH CENTRAL NC...AND IF IT DOES...ANY ASSOCIATED MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER DYING WOULD QUICKLY YIELD TO A RETREATING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS
FROM NEAR THE COAST. COASTAL NC. AS SUCH...SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH SOLID PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 220. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS INTO MID MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
454 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-060900-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
454 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH A CONSEQUENT THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NCZ084-085-051830-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SCOTLAND AND RICHMOND
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 128 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF LAURINBURG
TO ELLERBE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...LAUREL HILL...
HOFFMAN...AND...LAURINBURG...CAMP MACKALL...AND...EAST LAURINBURG.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN
THE NEXT HOUR...WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
AVOID THESE AREAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 7964 3492 7975 3500 7980 3518 7984
      3518 7968 3516 7965 3516 7962 3512 7957
      3509 7958 3506 7957 3506 7948 3496 7936
      3485 7934 3467 7952
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 221DEG 7KT 3499 7967 3482 7955
          3469 7955

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
412 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NCZ038-039-074-052100-
DAVIDSON-MONTGOMERY-RANDOLPH-
412 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH...MONTGOMERY AND
DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES
SOUTH OF ELDORADO...OR ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF TROY...MOVING NORTH AT
10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BADIN LAKE...
ELDORADO...NEW HOPE...AND MARTHA.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. MOTORISTS SHOULD REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO
AVOID HYDROPLANING.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE
AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 8020 3572 7979 3532 7979 3531 8008
      3536 8007 3537 8005 3540 8009 3546 8011
      3547 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 186DEG 10KT 3540 8000

VINCENT