Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
844 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE
DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 840 PM...

CONVECTION STILL GOING ON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CWA
BUT AREAS APPEAR TO BE GETTING WORKED OVER...LEAVING A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE BEHIND. THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AND COME TO A HALT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR...THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST HAS BECOME
VERY ELONGATED AT THIS TIME AND NEW FEATURES ARE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST NOTABLY AN MCS THAT HAS BLOWN UP
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS MCS LOOKS LIKE IT IS STARTING TO BE
PULLED IN TWO DIRECTIONS...ONE TO THE EAST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRAILING BEHIND A PARENT LOW CURRENTLY OVER QUEBEC...AND THE OTHER
HALF BEING PULLED AROUND THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS IT WONT
BE AN ISSUE FOR THE CWA TONIGHT.  AFTER CONVECTION DIES OUT EXPECT A
MOSTLY DRY NIGHT WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. -ELLIS

SOME MODELS INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF GEORGIA INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS FRIDAY... WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES.
WITH THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND TO OUR WEST... AND WITH NO FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... WILL NOT PLACE ANY EMPHASIS ON THIS FEATURE
AS A RAIN MAKER... BUT ADMIT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND COULD
ASSIST THE SEABREEZE INTO SAMPSON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE LOCATED THERE AND
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ONE IN FOUR SOUTHEAST DROPPING TO ONE IN
SEVEN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE... AND APPROACHING ONE IN FOUR IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE
CYCLONIC THAN TODAY. SEVERE THREAT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MINIMALLY LOWER 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS FRIDAY THAN TODAY...
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A TOUCH COOLER... MOSTLY LOWER 90S.

CONVECTION COULD LAST DEEP INTO THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST
HALF WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN CYCLONIC WINDS AT
THAT LEVEL FOR A RISK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. AN STRONGER THAN USUAL
SURFACE INVERSION WILL ALLOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP... ALSO
AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFTER DARK.

SOME STRATUS AND FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
TOUCH... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST. WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST... EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING... EXPECT CONVECTION TO
END RELATIVELY EARLY TONIGHT. SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE RURAL FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES 71 TO 75.

SOME MODELS INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF GEORGIA INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS FRIDAY... WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES.
WITH THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND TO OUR WEST... AND WITH NO FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... WILL NOT PLACE ANY EMPHASIS ON THIS FEATURE
AS A RAIN MAKER... BUT ADMIT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND COULD
ASSIST THE SEABREEZE INTO SAMPSON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE LOCATED THERE AND
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ONE IN FOUR SOUTHEAST DROPPING TO ONE IN
SEVEN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE... AND APPROACHING ONE IN FOUR IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE
CYCLONIC THAN TODAY. SEVERE THREAT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MINIMALLY LOWER 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS FRIDAY THAN TODAY...
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A TOUCH COOLER... MOSTLY LOWER 90S.

CONVECTION COULD LAST DEEP INTO THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST
HALF WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN CYCLONIC WINDS AT
THAT LEVEL FOR A RISK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. AN STRONGER THAN USUAL
SURFACE INVERSION WILL ALLOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP... ALSO
AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFTER DARK.

SOME STRATUS AND FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
TOUCH... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOST EVIDENT AT H7 WAS ANALYZED OVER THE MO
VALLEY AT 12Z/2ND...AND THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOIST
AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT AND DEAMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY. LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER... OWING TO STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS SUCH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT SAT...IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
ALOFT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL FORCE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FURTHER DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED H7 TROUGH...AND THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN EXPECTED TO HOLD TO OUR NORTH...CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED
ACTIVITY INVOF THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN...ON SUN. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 90
FOR HIGHS...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NC...LONGWAVE TROUGHING
WILL AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED INVOF THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NUMEROUS HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW AND
A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS BENEATH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT...WILL FAVOR AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE AND DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED
CHANCES OF WEAKLY-SHEARED PULSE CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY MON-TUE WHEN A DIFFUSING FRONTAL ZONE/OUTFLOW
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
MAKE THE CLOSEST APPROACH INTO OR JUST NW OF CENTRAL NC. LOWER
HEIGHTS WITHIN THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE
- WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 FOR HIGHS...AND GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EVENING.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KRWI.

AFTERNOON STORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
411 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ007>010-021>025-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-031115-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-
HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
411 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
STRONG...TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ011-026>028-042-043-078-089-031115-
HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
411 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             2 WSW EAST ROCKINGHAM   34.90N  79.80W
08/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       RICHMOND           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED OR A LITTLE LARGER HAIL BEGAN AT 610 PM.
            PENNY-SIZED HAIL WAS STILL FALLING AT 625 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200824

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
635 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     S HARRELLS              34.73N  78.20W
08/02/2012                   SAMPSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
            COUNTY... INCLUDING HARRELLS

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200825

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
656 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ083-030000-
ANSON-
656 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ANSON COUNTY THROUGH 800 PM
EDT...

AT 656 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
POLKTON...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WADESBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...POLKTON...ANSONVILLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8030 3518 8024 3515 8022 3517 8020
      3515 8018 3515 8016 3517 8016 3515 8008
      3512 8007 3508 8000 3512 7995 3511 7992
      3505 7990 3480 7999 3481 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 297DEG 3KT 3506 8019

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
759 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ083-030100-
ANSON-
759 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ANSON COUNTY THROUGH 900 PM
EDT...

AT 759 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
POLKTON...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF WADESBORO...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE WADESBORO...WHITE
STORE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. MANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. IF
YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TAKE COVER IN A VEHICLE.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 8030 3516 8010 3512 8007 3509 7999
      3512 7995 3511 7992 3506 7991 3505 7988
      3501 7990 3498 7987 3495 7987 3490 7985
      3485 7990 3480 7992 3481 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 341DEG 5KT 3498 8018

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
814 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ085-030115-
SCOTLAND-
814 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SCOTLAND COUNTY THROUGH 915
PM EDT...

AT 813 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LAURINBURG...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE LAURINBURG AND EAST
LAURINBURG.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 7964 3489 7958 3485 7934 3482 7935
      3477 7933 3463 7946 3463 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 286DEG 6KT 3476 7949

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
853 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ074-084-030200-
MONTGOMERY-RICHMOND-
853 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS RICHMOND AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

AT 853 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORMAN...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTH OF ROCKINGHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE NORMAN...DERBY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7989 3486 7990 3488 7986 3491 7985
      3495 7987 3498 7987 3501 7990 3505 7988
      3506 7991 3512 7993 3526 7995 3533 7972
      3527 7971 3524 7967 3507 7958
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 243DEG 8KT 3514 7978

ELLIS