Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
224 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
THAN IT WAS ON TUESDAY. THE CUMULUS HAS BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. AM EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ALSO...WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER GA...SHOULD ENHANCE OUR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY....BUT STILL NOT WIDESPREAD. NEVERTHELESS...SHEAR
PARAMETERS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL WEAK AND THEREFORE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNSET WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MAINLY A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO
EXTEND NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING
INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS
AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
FORCING. WITH THE ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
ONCE AGAIN AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS DUE
TO THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR PARAMETERS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
HOWEVER SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW (MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH)
MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND UPON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
BE SEVERAL METERS LOWER THAN TODAY AND DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASED
PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE...AM EXPECTING HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...

OUR PERSISTENT LEE TROF WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND WE WILL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL BE NORTH OF
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
MID LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH PW'S EXCEEDING 2
INCHES. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL AS THE 100KT UPPER
JET ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS SOUTH AND IS REORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING THE UPPER TROF.
THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE UPSHOT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
ON THE UPSWING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCES LOOKING
TO BE FROM LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE
OUR HIGH CHANCE (50 PERCENTISH) POPS ON FRIDAY...WILL BE INCREASING
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY WHEN
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA... ENHANCING POPS
WITH THE ADDITION OF STRONGER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FRIDAY WILL BE GRADUATED FROM PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH SOUTH TO
A HALF INCH NORTH. SATURDAY WILL SEE SAME NUMBERS...BUT THE OPPOSITE
ORIENTATION WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE HAMPERED SOMEWHAT BY INITIAL CLOUDINESS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION BREAKING OUT PRIOR TO MAX HEATING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER
90S SOUTH. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH...MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN AREAS
ADDITIONALLY BE IN A COOLER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROF AND CONVECTIVE SUPPORT DAMPENING...EXPECT SCALED BACK
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE COOLER AIRMASS...AND LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED AS IT IS PINCHED BETWEEN THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WHICH
WILL BE EDGING WEST INTO THE AREA. THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ENCROACHMENT OF MID LEVEL DRYING WILL BE KEY TO DETERMINING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND AT THIS POINT WILL UPGRADE TO CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...WITH THE
NORTHERN TIER IN A COOLER AIRMASS WHILE THE SOUTH WILL HAVE GREATER
PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE ONGOING MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GRADUAL
EVOLUTION OF A LONG WAVE-LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. CAN THUS EXPECT A WARMING
TREND WITH MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...
WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ON THE SLOPES AND NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVES ARE MORE OF A
FACTOR. TEMPS MAY TOUCH ON 90 A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY
LOW 90S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DAY TO DAY...MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING MAY LEAD TO BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS. HARD TO
PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION...THEREFORE FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY BETWEEN
19Z-01Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE
KRWI...KGSO AND KINT TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO PERSISTENCE.

OUTLOOK...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO CONVECTION AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROBABLE MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...KRR/WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
354 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCZ007-008-021>024-038>040-073-074-190930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
354 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL
SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND URBAN AREAS.

NCZ009>011-025>028-041>043-075>078-083>086-088-089-190930-
VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-
WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
354 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 102 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL
SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND URBAN AREAS.

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